KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

13%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u

WN2NO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.80u · WN2 −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	65.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	34.0%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	9.1%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	14.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	14.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	52.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	3.0%	—	—	—	—	20.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	70.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	72.5%	—	—	—	—	13.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	28.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	—	87.3%	—	—	15.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	11.4%	—	59.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	43.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	10.4%	—	13.7%	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	3.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.3%	29.4%	4.0%	—	—	14.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	5.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	61.8%	8.5%	57.7%	—	16.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	5.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	11.7%	0.6%	7.6%	2.3%	—	13.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	9.7%	0.3%	1.3%	2.2%	—	13.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	14.1%	—	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.4%	0.6%	0.7%	22.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.4%	51.6%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	6.1%	0.9%	35.3%	—	25.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	11.9%	3.4%	1.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	3.2%	1.2%	51.7%	—	14.6%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.9%	1.3%	0.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.3%	1.5%	11.5%	—	14.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	13.2%	1.9%	11.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	17.1%	0.5%	5.9%	8.2%	—	34.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	11.9%	0.8%	53.0%	—	—	23.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	8.6%	0.9%	6.1%	3.0%	—	10.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	0.4%	4.0%	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.0%	0.6%	2.6%	0.9%	99.5%	5.0%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	3.3%	2.1%	1.2%	63.3%	—	3.3%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.5%	2.7%	1.1%	0.2%	4.5%	4.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.1%	0.2%	1.2%	0.3%	—	5.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	2.5%	0.7%	0.7%	0.3%	98.9%	3.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	0.8%	0.7%	0.4%	—	6.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.3%	0.6%	0.2%	0.4%	1.2%	2.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	2.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.1%	0.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	13%	60.2°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
National Blend	7%	61.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	5%	61.9°F	4.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	5%	62.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 15:00	Pending
ICON	4%	63.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	3%	63.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 18:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	<1%	65.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 54°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-LE54
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 54°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗