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KLGA / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≤ 54°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 16 · 03:38 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
HRES
13%
EPS
5%
ICON
4%
AIFS
3%
WN2
<1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
HRESYES 6.4¢Risks 3.20u
VS
WN2NO 93.6¢Risks 46.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +46.80u · WN2 −46.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00AIFS Single: 4.5% · 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.4% · 2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 5.7% · 2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 4.8% · 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.2% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00IFS HRES: 18.9% · 2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00IFS HRES: 12.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00ICON: 3.7% · 2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:0010-15 07:4810-15 13:1010-16 03:38
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-15T07:48:47+00:004.7%5.4%0.2%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:48+00:004.7%5.4%0.2%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T09:20:55+00:004.7%5.4%0.2%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T10:06:49+00:004.7%5.4%0.2%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:47+00:004.7%5.4%0.2%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:01+00:004.7%5.4%0.1%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:47+00:004.7%5.7%0.1%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:01+00:004.7%5.7%0.1%18.9%1.8%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:004.5%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-15T23:52:11+00:004.5%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:004.5%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:003.0%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:003.0%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:003.0%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:003.0%4.8%0.1%12.7%3.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS HRES13%60.2°F5.0°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
National Blend7%61.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble5%61.9°F4.4°F2026-10-15 00:00Pending
NWS forecast5%62.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 15:00Pending
ICON4%63.2°F4.9°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending
AIFS Single3%63.1°F4.6°F2026-10-15 18:00Pending
WeatherNext 2<1%65.7°F3.7°F2026-10-15 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≤ 54°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261019-TMAX-LE54
Opened Oct 15 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: New York stays cold-for-here: high ≤ 54°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗