KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

53%

43%

37%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.75u · EPS −38.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	31.1%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	20.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	22.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	6.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	29.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	36.0%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	—	—	—	39.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	41.4%	—	0.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	37.7%	—	37.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	51.2%	—	—	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	45.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	61.2%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	32.1%	—	34.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	33.6%	—	38.4%	—	—	25.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	45.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	34.8%	20.8%	62.0%	—	—	30.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	31.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	59.7%	68.3%	18.0%	—	28.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.4%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	70.3%	54.4%	31.0%	—	21.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	20.0%	—	70.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	33.7%	67.0%	57.6%	11.0%	—	17.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	31.2%	—	65.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	51.6%	56.4%	17.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	5.8%	68.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	66.2%	41.7%	38.5%	—	17.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	23.9%	46.6%	55.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	15.1%	50.0%	61.3%	60.4%	—	8.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	26.4%	42.0%	45.5%	—	—	19.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	59.1%	63.6%	63.6%	—	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	59.4%	55.7%	—	—	23.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	43.2%	57.7%	48.0%	—	32.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	35.3%	32.6%	45.0%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	32.1%	19.0%	49.0%	39.8%	0.0%	25.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	53.2%	42.6%	—	—	20.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	33.1%	56.5%	46.7%	40.3%	—	22.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	28.6%	50.0%	54.5%	0.2%	—	21.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	32.0%	54.6%	64.8%	27.0%	0.0%	21.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	29.3%	65.3%	50.0%	37.0%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	32.0%	71.3%	43.8%	43.8%	33.1%	28.7%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	67.5%	63.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	66.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗