KLGA / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

66%

53%

43%

37%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 61.3¢Risks 61.25u

EPSNO 38.7¢Risks 38.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +38.75u · EPS −38.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T03:45:23+00:00	46.5%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	72.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:42+00:00	46.5%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	72.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:50+00:00	46.5%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:56+00:00	46.5%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	72.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:03+00:00	46.5%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	72.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:24+00:00	55.3%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	82.2%
2026-10-14T08:16:32+00:00	55.3%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	82.2%
2026-10-14T09:01:43+00:00	55.3%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	82.2%
2026-10-14T09:46:50+00:00	55.3%	25.2%	77.1%	53.8%	82.2%
2026-10-14T10:32:01+00:00	55.3%	25.2%	77.1%	39.2%	82.2%
2026-10-14T11:20:29+00:00	55.3%	17.5%	67.6%	39.2%	82.2%
2026-10-14T12:06:09+00:00	55.3%	17.5%	67.6%	39.2%	82.2%
2026-10-14T12:51:17+00:00	55.3%	17.5%	67.6%	39.2%	82.2%
2026-10-14T13:36:25+00:00	44.7%	17.5%	67.6%	39.2%	82.2%
2026-10-14T14:26:47+00:00	45.6%	17.6%	67.4%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T15:11:57+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	67.4%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T15:57:51+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	67.4%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T16:43:00+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	67.4%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T17:28:08+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	52.6%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T18:13:18+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	52.6%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T18:58:24+00:00	45.6%	17.4%	52.6%	39.2%	82.1%
2026-10-14T19:43:31+00:00	61.7%	17.4%	52.6%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-14T20:28:44+00:00	61.7%	17.4%	52.6%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-14T21:13:54+00:00	61.7%	17.4%	52.6%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-14T21:59:00+00:00	61.7%	17.4%	52.6%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-14T22:44:06+00:00	61.7%	17.4%	52.6%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-14T23:29:16+00:00	61.7%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T00:14:36+00:00	61.7%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T01:01:06+00:00	61.7%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T01:46:14+00:00	59.5%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T02:31:25+00:00	59.5%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T03:16:33+00:00	59.5%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-15T04:01:40+00:00	59.5%	17.5%	56.8%	44.0%	79.8%
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	70.4%	47.3%	82.1%	50.9%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	70.4%	47.3%	85.0%	50.9%	24.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	70.4%	47.3%	85.0%	50.9%	24.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	70.4%	47.3%	85.0%	50.9%	24.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	70.4%	47.3%	85.0%	50.9%	24.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	85.0%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	85.0%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	85.0%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	85.0%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	69.8%	47.3%	85.0%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	69.8%	36.7%	85.6%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	69.8%	36.7%	85.6%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	69.8%	36.7%	85.6%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	66.2%	36.9%	85.6%	43.2%	53.4%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	66.2%	36.9%	85.6%	43.2%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	70.8°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	66%	69.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 03:00	Pending
ICON	53%	67.8°F	3.6°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	43%	66.8°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	37%	66.4°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	32%	66.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261020-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 14 · 03:45 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 68°F · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗