KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

54%

40%

29%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.65u · HRES −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	2.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	42.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	48.4%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	48.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	57.4%	—	—	—	57.4%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	61.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	—	—	57.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	37.4%	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	52.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	51.2%	—	45.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	62.9%	—	68.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	44.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	77.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	70.4%	—	44.4%	—	49.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	64.4%	—	63.8%	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	92.0%	—	58.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	91.6%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	68.8%	46.0%	81.5%	—	50.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	57.5%	—	83.8%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	68.9%	52.8%	28.1%	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	—	60.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	44.9%	52.2%	52.2%	43.4%	44.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	68.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	70.4%	49.2%	80.0%	46.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	39.2%	—	25.9%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	37.5%	54.0%	46.0%	71.9%	25.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	25.6%	19.5%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	48.3%	19.5%	56.6%	20.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	38.2%	46.6%	28.8%	—	2.3%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	26.2%	26.2%	22.1%	33.8%	16.7%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	21.5%	31.8%	42.9%	—	11.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	12.9%	18.4%	33.9%	19.0%	10.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	14.3%	28.4%	28.4%	—	7.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	30.4%	35.7%	33.0%	9.4%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	9.6%	20.4%	35.3%	—	11.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	9.0%	29.4%	27.6%	21.9%	7.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	40.6%	22.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	15.5%	46.7%	23.8%	35.1%	10.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	19.0%	24.9%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	64.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	62.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	60.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗