KLGA / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 17 · 14:39 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

82%

76%

54%

40%

29%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 55.4¢Risks 55.35u

HRESNO 44.6¢Risks 44.65u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.65u · HRES −44.65u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T16:19:52+00:00	83.7%	67.6%	84.8%	63.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:18+00:00	83.7%	67.6%	90.4%	63.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:31+00:00	83.7%	67.6%	90.4%	63.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:51+00:00	83.7%	67.6%	90.4%	63.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:04+00:00	83.7%	67.6%	90.4%	63.6%	70.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:12+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	90.4%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:26+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	90.4%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:40+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	90.4%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:47+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	90.4%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-15T23:06:57+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:12+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:20+00:00	67.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:39+00:00	69.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T02:07:56+00:00	69.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:23+00:00	69.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:37+00:00	69.2%	67.6%	86.7%	61.9%	81.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	85.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	85.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	85.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	68.6%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	70.3%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	66.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	66.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	66.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	47.9%	66.1%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	70.0%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:34+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	82.2%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	84.7%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	84.7%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	70.7%	48.9%	84.7%	41.1%	66.1%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	60.3%	48.9%	84.7%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	60.3%	48.9%	84.7%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	60.3%	48.9%	84.7%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	60.3%	48.9%	84.7%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	60.3%	48.9%	84.7%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T11:31:57+00:00	60.3%	75.9%	82.0%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T12:17:25+00:00	60.3%	75.9%	82.0%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T13:02:31+00:00	60.3%	75.9%	82.0%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	54.3%	75.9%	82.0%	28.8%	40.2%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	54.3%	75.9%	81.9%	28.8%	40.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	82%	66.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	76%	65.4°F	2.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 03:00	Pending
AIFS Single	54%	64.0°F	4.6°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	40%	62.3°F	4.9°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	62.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	29%	60.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261021-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 15 · 16:19 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗