KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

74%

70%

69%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

EPSNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.45u · EPS −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	49.5%	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	52.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	58.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	49.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	50.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	52.8%	—	26.9%	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	42.7%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	78.7%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	39.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	58.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	70.3%	—	—	—	47.0%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	75.7%	—	81.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	78.9%	—	76.6%	—	46.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	77.9%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	43.5%	—	27.8%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	26.4%	—	44.7%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	23.8%	17.6%	28.8%	—	29.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	24.5%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	19.9%	55.6%	18.4%	48.6%	24.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	14.4%	—	19.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	88.7%	11.3%	49.3%	16.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	6.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	3.3%	11.4%	13.8%	34.4%	17.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	39.2%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	13.1%	53.2%	61.0%	22.4%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	36.4%	9.5%	52.4%	—	18.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	11.6%	16.8%	62.3%	49.2%	27.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	37.4%	20.8%	60.2%	—	31.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.6%	41.3%	67.8%	57.8%	34.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	47.3%	75.0%	—	33.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	16.6%	56.4%	72.6%	41.8%	38.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.6%	73.2%	69.9%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	57.7%	75.3%	67.8%	51.9%	47.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	71.8%	56.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	65.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗