KLGA / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 64°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST69%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

86%

74%

70%

69%

51%

Consensus

69%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 68.5¢Risks 68.55u

EPSNO 31.4¢Risks 31.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +31.45u · EPS −31.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:13:36+00:00	68.6%	41.7%	71.2%	54.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:00:10+00:00	68.6%	41.7%	88.8%	54.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T05:45:17+00:00	68.6%	41.7%	88.8%	54.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T06:30:24+00:00	68.6%	41.7%	88.8%	54.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T07:15:30+00:00	68.6%	41.7%	88.8%	54.1%	37.8%
2026-10-18T08:00:44+00:00	44.8%	41.7%	88.8%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:08+00:00	44.8%	41.7%	88.8%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:15+00:00	44.8%	41.7%	88.8%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:23+00:00	44.8%	41.7%	88.8%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:31+00:00	44.8%	41.7%	88.8%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:09+00:00	44.8%	55.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:24+00:00	44.8%	55.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T13:18:58+00:00	44.8%	55.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:06+00:00	50.9%	55.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T14:55:22+00:00	50.9%	55.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T15:41:22+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T16:26:43+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	82.6%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T17:12:02+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	83.3%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T17:57:13+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	83.3%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T18:42:44+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	83.3%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T19:27:51+00:00	50.9%	51.3%	83.3%	63.3%	55.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:03+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	83.3%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-18T20:58:12+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	83.3%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-18T21:43:21+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	83.3%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-18T22:28:29+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	83.3%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-18T23:13:37+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-18T23:58:48+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T00:44:02+00:00	48.3%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T01:29:26+00:00	73.6%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T02:14:42+00:00	73.6%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T02:59:50+00:00	73.6%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%
2026-10-19T03:45:01+00:00	73.6%	51.3%	85.8%	69.8%	68.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	86%	67.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	74%	66.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
IFS HRES	70%	66.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	69%	65.9°F	4.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	56%	64.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	63.6°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 64°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261022-TMAX-GE64
Opened Oct 18 · 04:13 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 64°F · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗