KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.2¢Risks 1.29u

EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 23.71u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.71u · EPS −23.71u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	1.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	7.1%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	12.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	12.6%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	7.7%	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.3%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	2.6%	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	42.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	35.0%	—	—	—	11.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	7.0%	—	12.4%	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.6%	—	9.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.0%	—	17.3%	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	3.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	39.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	18.1%	—	0.7%	—	3.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	1.0%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	8.3%	—	0.3%	—	3.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	—	7.4%	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	8.2%	4.7%	5.2%	—	2.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	14.2%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	0.4%	23.0%	0.9%	2.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	10.1%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	4.4%	4.4%	0.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.3%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.2%	5.8%	0.3%	0.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	3.0%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	0.3%	1.3%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.9%	—	0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.2%	0.8%	0.4%	0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.4%	0.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	0.1%	0.4%	0.0%	0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	0.1%	0.3%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	66.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	5%	60.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	59.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	60.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗