KLGA / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 17 · 16:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 5.2¢Risks 1.29u

EPSNO 94.8¢Risks 23.71u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +23.71u · EPS −23.71u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T14:19:37+00:00	7.4%	1.5%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T15:05:06+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T15:50:52+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T16:36:02+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	35.5%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T17:21:16+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:06:34+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T18:51:40+00:00	7.4%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	29.7%
2026-10-16T19:36:47+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	14.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:20+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	14.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:43+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	14.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:50+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	27.2%	12.2%	14.6%
2026-10-16T22:37:57+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	27.2%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:13+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T00:08:44+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:54+00:00	1.8%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:03+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:16+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:26+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:35+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T04:40:49+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	18.9%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T05:27:45+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	19.4%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T06:13:33+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	19.4%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T06:58:42+00:00	1.6%	1.3%	19.4%	2.1%	14.6%
2026-10-17T07:43:54+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.4%	2.3%	4.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:36+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.4%	2.3%	4.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:18+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.4%	2.3%	4.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:47+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.4%	2.3%	4.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:52+00:00	1.4%	1.3%	19.4%	2.3%	4.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:39+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	9.9%	2.4%	4.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:14+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	10.0%	2.3%	5.0%
2026-10-17T15:24:25+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	10.0%	2.3%	5.0%
2026-10-17T16:10:28+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	10.0%	2.3%	5.0%
2026-10-17T16:55:36+00:00	1.6%	0.3%	10.0%	2.3%	5.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	10%	66.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	7%	64.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
ICON	5%	60.7°F	7.2°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
National Blend	3%	64.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	59.3°F	6.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	2%	60.9°F	5.4°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	62.5°F	3.7°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261023-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 16 · 14:19 UTC

Original listing: New York runs hot-for-here: 73°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗