KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

80%

75%

58%

51%

Consensus

72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 66.1¢Risks 66.05u

EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.95u · EPS −33.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	IFS*
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	68.0%	—	—	—	28.3%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	51.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	79.2%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	86.9%	—	—	—	53.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	82.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	72.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	92.3%	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	83.5%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	54.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	80.0%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	17.1%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	72.3%	—	—	—	41.8%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	77.1%	—	4.6%	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	—	—	—	36.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	16.6%	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	22.4%	—	38.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	22.9%	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	35.0%	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	48.7%	—	30.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	47.3%	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	47.3%	5.6%	58.1%	—	30.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	53.4%	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	55.6%	77.6%	53.5%	20.4%	43.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	55.0%	—	49.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	58.7%	47.8%	36.4%	41.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	—	—	56.0%	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	65.6°F	4.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	66.1°F	5.4°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
National Blend	77%	64.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	66.4°F	7.2°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	58%	62.9°F	6.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	53%	62.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	51%	61.6°F	3.6°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗