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KLGA / Sun Oct 25 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

New York, NYHigh ≥ 62°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST72%Oct 19 · 12:06 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
81%
AIFS
80%
ICON
75%
HRES
58%
EPS
51%
Consensus
72%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 66.1¢Risks 66.05u
VS
EPSNO 33.9¢Risks 33.95u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +33.95u · EPS −33.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00AIFS Single: 78.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 36.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS Ensemble: 51.1% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.6% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 82.6% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00WeatherNext 2: 81.0% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00IFS HRES: 70.1% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00IFS HRES: 58.4% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00ICON: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:00ICON: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:00ICON: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:00ICON: 81.3% · 2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:00ICON: 75.3% · 2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0010-19 04:3010-19 08:1910-19 12:06
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-19T04:30:14+00:0078.3%36.6%87.6%70.1%81.3%
2026-10-19T05:16:50+00:0078.3%36.6%82.6%70.1%81.3%
2026-10-19T06:02:10+00:0078.3%36.6%82.6%70.1%81.3%
2026-10-19T06:47:18+00:0078.3%36.6%82.6%70.1%81.3%
2026-10-19T07:32:29+00:0080.2%36.6%82.6%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T08:19:20+00:0080.2%36.6%82.6%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T09:04:25+00:0080.2%36.6%82.6%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T09:49:31+00:0080.2%36.6%82.6%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T10:34:46+00:0080.2%36.6%82.6%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T11:20:34+00:0080.2%51.1%81.0%58.4%75.3%
2026-10-19T12:06:25+00:0080.2%51.1%81.0%58.4%75.3%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 281%65.6°F4.7°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
AIFS Single80%66.1°F5.4°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
National Blend77%64.0°F3.3°F2026-10-19 06:00Pending
ICON75%66.4°F7.2°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
IFS HRES58%62.9°F6.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending
NWS forecast53%62.0°F5.9°F2026-10-19 03:00Pending
IFS Ensemble51%61.6°F3.6°F2026-10-19 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 62°F · KLGA

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KLGA-20261025-TMAX-GE62
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: New York high ≥ 62°F · Sun Oct 25

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗