KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

33%

23%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.10u · ICON −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	41.0%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	57.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	20.8%	—	—	—	—	38.5%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	75.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	44.2%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	78.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	39.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	56.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	35.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	40.5%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	45.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	—	—	—	56.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.9%	—	—	—	—	65.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	25.4%	—	—	—	—	72.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	47.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	65.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	43.9%	—	16.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	—	—	—	62.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	33.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	20.7%	—	—	59.7%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	68.5%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	58.7%	2.0%	68.8%	—	—	66.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	17.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	78.6%	18.9%	3.2%	—	63.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	5.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	75.7%	10.0%	28.5%	—	59.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	2.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	52.3%	40.9%	0.4%	23.4%	—	55.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	35.2%	6.7%	27.4%	—	33.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	35.3%	40.1%	10.8%	23.8%	—	31.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	36.6%	12.8%	42.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	15.6%	33.8%	16.7%	—	33.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	35.1%	30.2%	43.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	39.1%	39.1%	20.9%	—	32.2%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.2%	19.6%	47.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	47.1%	16.5%	41.3%	21.8%	—	27.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.0%	16.4%	38.2%	—	—	26.5%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	44.9%	7.4%	42.8%	28.5%	—	30.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	47.9%	31.6%	44.7%	—	—	29.8%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	44.5%	30.1%	52.2%	31.1%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.4%	30.5%	52.2%	0.0%	—	27.6%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	28.9%	27.0%	23.3%	16.0%	19.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.8%	14.5%	33.6%	25.3%	—	24.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	22.7%	35.4%	20.8%	—	28.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	21.9%	6.0%	30.2%	19.1%	—	17.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	13.4%	12.7%	40.7%	9.5%	9.5%	10.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	30.0%	8.1%	23.2%	16.4%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.6%	25.6%	33.1%	26.8%	52.9%	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	69.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	68.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗