KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 68°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST36%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

68%

56%

33%

23%

Consensus

36%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 38.9¢Risks 38.90u

ICONNO 61.1¢Risks 61.10u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +61.10u · ICON −61.10u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-18T04:14:11+00:00	75.5%	57.6%	55.1%	24.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	75.5%	57.6%	77.1%	24.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	75.5%	57.6%	77.1%	24.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	75.5%	57.6%	77.1%	24.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T07:15:37+00:00	75.5%	57.6%	77.1%	24.0%	26.7%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	75.3%	57.6%	77.1%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	75.3%	57.6%	77.1%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	75.3%	57.6%	77.1%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	75.3%	57.6%	77.1%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	75.3%	60.3%	67.2%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	75.3%	60.3%	67.2%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	75.3%	60.3%	67.2%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	75.3%	60.3%	67.2%	47.9%	14.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	61.0%	60.1%	67.2%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	61.0%	60.1%	67.2%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	61.0%	56.1%	67.2%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	61.0%	56.1%	67.2%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	61.0%	56.1%	54.1%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	61.0%	56.1%	54.1%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	61.0%	56.1%	54.1%	47.9%	14.9%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	54.1%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	54.1%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	54.1%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	54.1%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	54.1%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	52.0%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	68.5%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	68.5%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	68.5%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	68.5%	56.1%	32.8%	23.3%	9.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	68%	69.4°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	68.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	56%	68.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	67.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	33%	66.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	23%	64.8°F	3.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
ICON	9%	62.8°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 68°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE68
Opened Oct 18 · 04:14 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 68°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗