KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

25%

17%

14%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.6¢Risks 15.55u

ICONNO 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.45u · ICON −84.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	12.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	18.6%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	21.6%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	50.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	54.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.4%	—	—	—	—	17.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	14.9%	—	—	—	—	15.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	5.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	6.0%	—	—	—	—	21.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	8.4%	—	—	—	—	29.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	37.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	20.6%	—	0.0%	—	—	35.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	4.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	—	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	24.5%	—	10.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	27.8%	—	5.1%	—	—	28.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	36.3%	—	30.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	26.5%	0.2%	36.1%	—	—	33.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.6%	—	3.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	14.5%	46.5%	3.9%	0.3%	—	29.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	19.9%	41.3%	1.4%	6.9%	—	24.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	17.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	18.4%	11.8%	0.0%	4.6%	—	20.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	0.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	8.1%	8.4%	0.6%	5.5%	—	7.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	9.5%	—	12.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	7.7%	9.7%	1.1%	3.9%	—	6.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	7.8%	1.4%	10.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	10.1%	1.7%	6.5%	1.9%	—	6.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	6.6%	5.0%	10.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	10.6%	7.6%	7.6%	2.5%	—	5.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	10.4%	2.1%	10.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	9.8%	1.4%	7.5%	2.3%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	8.8%	1.3%	6.0%	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	7.8%	0.3%	7.1%	3.2%	—	3.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	8.3%	3.5%	7.2%	—	—	3.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	6.6%	2.9%	9.4%	3.1%	0.0%	2.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	6.0%	2.7%	8.7%	0.0%	—	2.2%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.8%	2.2%	1.9%	1.4%	0.7%	1.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	4.5%	0.5%	2.7%	1.5%	—	1.4%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	3.7%	1.0%	2.6%	0.9%	—	1.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	0.8%	0.1%	1.6%	0.6%	—	0.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	0.2%	2.8%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	0.1%	0.7%	0.3%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	0.7%	1.2%	0.7%	4.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	2.4%	0.6%	0.3%	—	0.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	1.1%	1.8%	0.1%	1.8%	0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	1.3%	0.5%	0.0%	—	0.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
IFS Ensemble	26%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0671
AIFS Single	25%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0625
WeatherNext 2	17%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0279
IFS HRES	14%	67.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0196
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0177
ICON	5%	64.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗