KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

26%

25%

17%

14%

Consensus

15%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 15.6¢Risks 15.55u

ICONNO 84.5¢Risks 84.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +84.45u · ICON −84.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:31+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	48.5%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	48.5%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	48.5%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	48.5%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	48.5%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	51.4%	42.5%	38.1%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	51.4%	43.6%	38.1%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00	51.4%	43.6%	38.1%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	50.0%	43.6%	38.1%	63.6%	10.1%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	50.0%	43.6%	38.1%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T15:27:28+00:00	50.0%	43.6%	38.1%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	38.1%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	32.9%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	32.9%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	32.9%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	50.0%	45.2%	32.9%	63.6%	10.2%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	32.9%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	32.9%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	32.9%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	32.9%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	36.1%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	47.9%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	47.9%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	47.9%	45.2%	24.7%	35.8%	65.7%
2026-10-14T02:59:53+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	33.9%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	35.6%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	24.6%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	23.3%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	24.6%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	23.3%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	24.6%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	23.3%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	24.6%	35.7%	37.2%	42.1%	23.3%
2026-10-14T10:33:37+00:00	24.6%	35.7%	37.2%	25.0%	23.3%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	24.6%	21.9%	21.2%	25.0%	23.3%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	24.6%	21.9%	21.2%	25.0%	23.3%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	24.6%	21.9%	21.2%	25.0%	23.3%
2026-10-14T13:36:29+00:00	27.9%	21.9%	21.2%	25.0%	23.3%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	28.0%	21.9%	21.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	21.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	21.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	21.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	17.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	17.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	28.0%	23.9%	17.1%	25.0%	23.5%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	17.1%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	17.1%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	17.1%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	17.1%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	17.1%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T00:14:49+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	25.3%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T04:02:16+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	15.3%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	14.8%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	14.8%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	26.6%	23.9%	14.8%	15.3%	27.2%
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	14.8%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	14.8%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	14.8%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	14.8%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	14.8%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	30.9%	23.9%	16.7%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	30.9%	25.9%	16.7%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	30.9%	25.9%	16.7%	14.0%	5.1%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	25.0%	25.9%	16.7%	14.0%	5.2%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	25.0%	25.9%	16.7%	14.0%	5.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.2959
IFS Ensemble	26%	70.5°F	3.1°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0671
AIFS Single	25%	69.4°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0625
WeatherNext 2	17%	68.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0279
IFS HRES	14%	67.1°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0196
National Blend	13%	70.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0177
ICON	5%	64.6°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0027

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗