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KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
ICON
7%
AIFS
5%
HRES
3%
WN2
1%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
ICONYES 4.2¢Risks 1.05u
VS
EPSNO 95.8¢Risks 23.95u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.95u · EPS −23.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.6% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 25.7% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.2% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.2% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.5% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.4% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.0% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.7% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.9% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.3% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.3% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.2% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.9% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.5% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.8% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.9% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.2% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.5% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.8% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 12:0010-12 06:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:003.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:002.4%————5.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0010.5%————7.3%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0012.8%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:001.6%————5.2%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0025.7%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:005.8%————6.9%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.6%————5.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:004.4%————4.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:001.2%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0011.2%————5.8%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:001.5%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:001.3%————7.2%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:000.9%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:001.9%————11.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:000.8%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:002.4%————14.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:002.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:001.7%————18.9%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:002.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:005.7%—0.0%——13.0%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:004.4%—0.6%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:002.8%————10.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:006.8%—2.1%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:008.0%—0.7%——8.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0011.9%—9.2%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:007.0%0.0%11.4%——10.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:006.4%—0.4%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:002.6%16.6%0.4%0.0%—7.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:005.1%—0.0%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.9%12.8%0.1%0.8%—5.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:002.9%—0.0%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.2%1.6%0.0%0.4%—3.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:001.7%—0.0%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:000.8%0.9%0.0%0.5%—0.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:001.0%—1.4%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.9%0.0%0.2%—0.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:000.6%0.1%1.0%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.9%0.1%0.4%0.1%—0.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:000.4%0.3%0.8%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.8%0.5%0.5%0.1%—0.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.7%0.1%0.7%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.6%0.0%0.4%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.0%0.2%——0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.3%0.0%0.3%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.3%0.1%0.3%——0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.2%0.1%0.4%0.1%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.3%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast16%73.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.0246
ICON7%68.9°F5.9°F2026-10-14 12:000.0055
AIFS Single5%69.4°F5.0°F2026-10-14 18:000.0027
IFS HRES3%66.6°F5.8°F2026-10-14 12:000.0008
National Blend1%70.0°F3.4°F2026-10-15 00:000.0002
WeatherNext 21%68.2°F4.1°F2026-10-14 18:000.0001
IFS Ensemble1%70.3°F3.1°F2026-10-14 00:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗