KMCI / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 07:03 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

ICONYES 4.2¢Risks 1.05u

EPSNO 95.8¢Risks 23.95u

25 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

ICON +23.95u · EPS −23.95u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:32+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	16.4%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T08:34:29+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	16.4%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T09:19:38+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	16.4%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T10:05:00+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	16.4%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T10:50:12+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	16.4%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T11:35:34+00:00	19.5%	14.6%	9.5%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T12:20:50+00:00	19.5%	12.3%	9.5%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T13:05:57+00:00	19.5%	12.3%	9.5%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T13:51:07+00:00	18.6%	12.3%	9.5%	32.9%	3.7%
2026-10-12T14:41:18+00:00	18.7%	12.3%	9.5%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T15:27:28+00:00	18.7%	12.3%	9.5%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:57+00:00	18.7%	13.1%	9.5%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:05+00:00	18.7%	13.1%	7.4%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:14+00:00	18.7%	13.1%	7.4%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:20+00:00	18.7%	13.1%	7.4%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:27+00:00	18.7%	13.1%	7.4%	32.9%	3.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:33+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	7.4%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T20:43:44+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	7.4%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T21:28:50+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	7.4%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T22:13:57+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	7.4%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T22:59:12+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-12T23:44:19+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T00:29:25+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T01:14:40+00:00	10.6%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T01:59:48+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T02:44:57+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T03:30:02+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T04:16:07+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	4.6%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T05:01:46+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	8.3%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T05:46:52+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	8.3%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T06:32:12+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	8.3%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T07:17:18+00:00	17.3%	13.1%	8.3%	12.5%	46.0%
2026-10-13T08:03:42+00:00	13.3%	13.1%	8.3%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:40+00:00	13.3%	13.1%	8.3%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:46+00:00	13.3%	13.1%	8.3%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:57+00:00	13.3%	13.1%	8.3%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:21+00:00	13.3%	4.2%	4.4%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:39+00:00	13.3%	4.2%	4.4%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:50+00:00	13.3%	4.2%	4.4%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:55+00:00	13.3%	4.2%	4.4%	16.1%	35.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:03+00:00	11.0%	4.2%	4.4%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T14:56:05+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.4%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T15:41:39+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.4%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T16:27:04+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.4%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T17:12:12+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T17:57:19+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T18:42:24+00:00	11.0%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	35.6%
2026-10-13T19:27:29+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T20:12:37+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T20:57:44+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T21:43:17+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	4.0%	16.1%	14.0%
2026-10-13T22:28:25+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	4.0%	16.8%	14.0%
2026-10-13T23:13:38+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-13T23:58:46+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T00:43:54+00:00	12.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T01:29:10+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T02:14:20+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T02:59:53+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T03:45:31+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T04:30:46+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T05:15:54+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:01:00+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T06:46:17+00:00	8.7%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	14.1%
2026-10-14T07:31:28+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	5.7%
2026-10-14T08:16:38+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	5.7%
2026-10-14T09:01:47+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	5.7%
2026-10-14T09:46:54+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	7.8%	16.8%	5.7%
2026-10-14T10:33:38+00:00	4.5%	4.7%	7.8%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	2.2%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	2.2%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	4.5%	0.8%	2.2%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-14T13:36:29+00:00	5.5%	0.8%	2.2%	6.1%	5.7%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	5.6%	0.8%	2.2%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	2.2%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	2.2%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	2.2%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.5%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.5%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	5.6%	1.0%	1.5%	6.1%	5.9%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	5.2%	1.0%	1.2%	2.9%	7.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	16%	73.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0246
ICON	7%	68.9°F	5.9°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0055
AIFS Single	5%	69.4°F	5.0°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0027
IFS HRES	3%	66.6°F	5.8°F	2026-10-14 12:00	0.0008
National Blend	1%	70.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
WeatherNext 2	1%	68.2°F	4.1°F	2026-10-14 18:00	0.0001
IFS Ensemble	1%	70.3°F	3.1°F	2026-10-14 00:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261019-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗