WEATHER PROPSBOARDMATCHUPSMODELSSTATIONSREPLAYTHE LEAGUE
← All matchups
KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
22%
EPS
4%
HRES
2%
WN2
2%
ICON
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 11.6¢Risks 11.60u
VS
ICONNO 88.4¢Risks 88.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.40u · ICON −88.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.6% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.6% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.3% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.4% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 21.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 16.3% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.1% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 24.8% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.2% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.1% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.6% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.8% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.3% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 6.7% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.8% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.5% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.7% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 22.1% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 4.5% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.6% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.8% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 35.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 29.8% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.7% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 37.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.1% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.8% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.0% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 13.8% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.4% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.0% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 17.3% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 7.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.9% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.5% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 4.6% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 3.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.3% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 2.6% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.7% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.9% · 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.9% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.8% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 5.6% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.0% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 16.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.2% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.1% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.7% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.4% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 23.3% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 28.0% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 18.5% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.4% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 17.5% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.2% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.9% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 4.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 3.1% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.4% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.8% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.5% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.8% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:0010-05 12:0010-13 00:0010-20 12:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:000.0%————0.1%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:0012.6%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:003.5%————3.9%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:0026.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:000.3%————8.3%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:0030.6%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:000.6%————6.8%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:004.7%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:002.6%————5.6%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:000.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:000.5%————5.6%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:006.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0016.9%————11.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:0010.3%————16.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:006.4%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:007.2%————19.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:0010.6%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:0017.1%————24.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:008.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:0021.7%————21.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0016.3%—————
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:0020.1%————25.4%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:0030.6%—9.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0035.2%————23.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0024.8%—————
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:005.8%—35.3%——28.0%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0015.2%—29.8%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:000.7%—10.7%——18.5%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:002.6%—37.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:009.9%0.0%17.1%——19.4%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0010.1%—5.8%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:003.0%16.6%0.6%0.0%—17.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:009.8%—4.2%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:0011.7%22.1%4.6%4.6%—6.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:008.6%—17.0%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:007.6%4.8%13.8%3.2%—3.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:006.1%—12.4%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:007.5%5.1%10.0%0.8%—4.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:004.9%—17.3%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:007.4%4.5%1.1%2.8%—4.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:006.1%1.1%7.5%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:006.8%5.0%5.9%2.4%—3.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:006.3%3.8%5.0%——2.4%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:005.8%3.8%5.5%1.3%—2.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:006.7%1.8%4.2%——2.6%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:004.0%1.6%2.3%2.3%—2.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:002.7%0.2%4.2%——1.5%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.5%0.6%4.2%0.6%0.0%0.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:003.8%0.6%4.5%——1.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:003.5%0.8%4.0%0.6%—0.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:002.4%1.4%4.0%0.0%—0.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:002.1%0.1%5.1%0.2%0.0%0.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:002.9%0.4%2.2%0.2%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:001.4%0.2%2.1%0.2%2.6%0.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.5%0.8%2.6%0.1%—0.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.7%0.0%3.0%0.1%0.2%0.2%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.9%1.8%1.0%0.1%—0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:000.1%2.7%0.9%0.1%0.7%0.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.0%—0.4%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00——0.5%—0.9%—
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast26%75.0°F3.9°F2026-10-17 14:00Pending
AIFS Single22%74.2°F4.3°F2026-10-17 18:00Pending
IFS Ensemble4%71.1°F3.6°F2026-10-17 00:00Pending
IFS HRES2%68.7°F4.5°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
WeatherNext 22%70.8°F3.4°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending
National Blend2%73.0°F2.2°F2026-10-17 06:00Pending
ICON1%68.5°F4.0°F2026-10-17 12:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗