KMCI / Tue Oct 20 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 03:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

22%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 11.6¢Risks 11.60u

ICONNO 88.4¢Risks 88.40u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +88.40u · ICON −88.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:16+00:00	21.3%	3.8%	11.9%	11.8%	23.5%
2026-10-15T04:47:56+00:00	21.3%	3.8%	11.9%	11.8%	23.5%
2026-10-15T05:33:18+00:00	21.3%	3.8%	11.9%	11.8%	23.5%
2026-10-15T06:18:27+00:00	21.3%	3.8%	11.9%	11.8%	23.5%
2026-10-15T07:03:38+00:00	21.3%	3.8%	11.9%	11.8%	23.5%
2026-10-15T07:49:55+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	11.9%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T08:35:51+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	11.9%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T09:21:46+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	11.9%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T10:07:33+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	11.9%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T10:53:21+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	11.9%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T11:39:26+00:00	22.2%	3.8%	9.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	22.2%	6.5%	9.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	22.2%	6.5%	9.4%	11.9%	17.3%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	18.8%	6.5%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	18.8%	6.5%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	18.8%	4.8%	9.4%	12.0%	17.9%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	24.1%	4.8%	9.4%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	24.1%	4.8%	9.4%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	24.1%	4.8%	9.4%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	24.1%	4.8%	9.4%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	24.1%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	24.0%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	24.0%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	22.8%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	22.8%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	22.8%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	22.8%	4.8%	10.3%	14.2%	18.4%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.3%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.3%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.3%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	22.9%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	11.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	10.8%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	10.8%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	10.8%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.7%	7.5%	10.8%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.7%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	23.6%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.0%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.7%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.7%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	27.0%	3.6%	7.7%	4.3%	10.8%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	7.7%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	7.7%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	7.7%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	7.7%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	19.4%	3.6%	7.7%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	19.4%	6.4%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	19.4%	6.4%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	19.4%	6.4%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	16.9%	6.4%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	16.9%	6.7%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:54+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	6.1%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	5.5%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	5.5%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	5.5%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	16.9%	3.7%	5.5%	6.4%	2.1%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	5.5%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	5.5%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	5.5%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	5.5%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	7.1%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	22.0%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	22.0%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	22.0%	3.7%	2.3%	2.4%	1.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	26%	75.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-17 14:00	Pending
AIFS Single	22%	74.2°F	4.3°F	2026-10-17 18:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	4%	71.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-17 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	2%	68.7°F	4.5°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	2%	70.8°F	3.4°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending
National Blend	2%	73.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-17 06:00	Pending
ICON	1%	68.5°F	4.0°F	2026-10-17 12:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261020-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 78°F+ · Tue Oct 20

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗