KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

90%

88%

75%

66%

51%

Consensus

71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 70.5¢Risks 70.45u

ICONNO 29.5¢Risks 29.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.55u · ICON −29.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	1.9%	—	—	—	—	0.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	66.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	3.5%	—	—	—	—	23.6%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	4.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	29.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	30.6%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	32.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	32.5%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	42.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	37.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	54.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	—	—	—	44.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	48.4%	—	—	—	—	46.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	35.8%	—	10.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	38.2%	—	—	—	—	48.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	53.5%	—	6.1%	—	—	57.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	36.5%	—	77.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	30.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	33.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	24.9%	—	—	—	—	51.3%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	27.1%	—	46.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	37.8%	—	37.2%	—	—	50.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	18.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.9%	11.8%	34.8%	—	—	49.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	79.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	52.1%	33.6%	0.4%	—	36.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	58.5%	—	66.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	48.5%	60.8%	18.9%	—	50.0%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	70.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	60.6%	29.6%	40.2%	—	58.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	51.6%	—	48.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.6%	53.2%	6.7%	48.4%	—	44.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	54.9%	—	52.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	49.2%	50.8%	40.1%	40.9%	—	50.8%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	23.9%	55.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	51.7%	57.8%	57.8%	41.3%	—	48.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.9%	53.6%	57.1%	—	—	46.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	53.7%	44.5%	56.4%	43.6%	—	41.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	59.4%	51.9%	57.5%	—	—	42.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	60.6%	51.0%	55.8%	43.2%	—	48.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	57.0%	44.0%	57.0%	—	—	42.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	56.1%	44.9%	56.1%	34.0%	—	39.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	55.3%	54.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	59.7%	51.1%	60.8%	40.3%	—	53.3%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	55.6%	51.1%	59.0%	0.0%	—	43.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	58.1%	41.9%	61.5%	36.3%	0.0%	40.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	59.5%	61.9%	59.5%	28.3%	—	48.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	64.6%	65.8%	57.4%	33.1%	46.3%	59.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	57.7%	—	55.1%	36.1%	—	53.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	90%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	88%	77.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	75%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	66%	74.1°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
ICON	51%	72.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	72.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗