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KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 73°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST71%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
90%
AIFS
88%
HRES
75%
EPS
66%
ICON
51%
Consensus
71%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 70.5¢Risks 70.45u
VS
ICONNO 29.5¢Risks 29.55u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +29.55u · ICON −29.55u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00AIFS Single: 85.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 88.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 88.5% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS Ensemble: 62.6% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 65.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 76.1% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.7% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00IFS HRES: 43.2% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 75.0% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00ICON: 38.9% · 2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 51.1% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0010-20 04:0410-20 09:2210-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:0085.6%62.6%76.1%43.2%38.9%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:0085.6%62.6%76.1%43.2%38.9%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:0085.6%62.6%87.7%43.2%38.9%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:0085.6%62.6%87.7%43.2%38.9%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:0085.6%62.6%87.7%43.2%38.9%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:0088.4%62.6%87.7%43.2%51.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:0088.4%62.6%87.7%43.2%51.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:0088.4%62.6%87.7%43.2%51.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:0088.4%62.6%87.7%43.2%51.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:0088.4%65.8%89.8%75.0%51.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0088.4%65.8%89.8%75.0%51.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0088.4%65.8%89.8%75.0%51.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0088.4%65.8%89.8%75.0%51.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0088.5%65.8%89.8%75.0%51.1%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
WeatherNext 290%76.2°F2.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single88%77.2°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES75%75.0°F3.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS Ensemble66%74.1°F3.9°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
NWS forecast56%73.0°F3.1°F2026-10-20 03:00Pending
ICON51%72.6°F3.5°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend41%72.0°F2.2°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 73°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE73
Opened Oct 20 · 04:04 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 73°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗