KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

46%

34%

26%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

ICONNO 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.70u · ICON −64.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	45.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	1.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	7.3%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	25.2%	—	—	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	12.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	9.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.2%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.0%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	37.4%	—	—	—	—	24.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	33.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	—	—	—	—	26.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	17.8%	—	3.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	27.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	12.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	30.9%	—	1.7%	—	—	34.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	17.3%	—	56.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	13.0%	—	—	—	—	31.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	27.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.6%	—	23.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	—	16.4%	—	—	26.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	5.7%	—	37.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	20.3%	3.1%	14.3%	—	—	24.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	55.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	29.2%	25.7%	13.0%	0.0%	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.7%	—	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	31.7%	22.1%	32.3%	5.3%	—	23.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	41.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.8%	30.9%	9.7%	15.5%	—	28.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	20.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	25.5%	23.6%	1.1%	20.1%	—	17.4%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	24.3%	—	22.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	19.5%	20.7%	13.8%	14.3%	—	20.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	19.6%	5.9%	23.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	20.2%	24.8%	24.8%	13.6%	—	17.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	19.0%	20.9%	23.5%	—	—	16.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	20.3%	14.4%	22.3%	13.9%	—	12.9%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.8%	18.4%	22.4%	—	—	12.7%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	17.1%	20.3%	12.6%	—	15.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	12.4%	20.4%	—	—	11.4%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	12.3%	19.0%	7.4%	—	9.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	20.5%	17.6%	16.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	19.8%	14.3%	20.6%	9.0%	—	15.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	13.5%	18.3%	0.0%	—	9.7%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	16.8%	8.5%	19.1%	6.5%	0.0%	8.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	18.3%	16.7%	3.7%	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	19.1%	19.9%	14.4%	4.6%	8.9%	15.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	13.5%	—	12.2%	4.9%	—	11.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	77.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	72.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	1.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗