KMCI / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST4%Oct 20 · 15:32 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

46%

34%

26%

14%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 35.3¢Risks 35.30u

ICONNO 64.7¢Risks 64.70u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +64.70u · ICON −64.70u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:32:09+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:33:38+00:00	45.7%	40.6%	44.8%	51.3%	25.6%
2026-10-14T11:20:54+00:00	45.7%	24.4%	49.2%	51.3%	25.6%
2026-10-14T12:06:14+00:00	45.7%	24.4%	49.2%	51.3%	25.6%
2026-10-14T12:51:21+00:00	45.7%	24.4%	49.2%	51.3%	25.6%
2026-10-14T13:36:29+00:00	65.2%	24.4%	49.2%	51.3%	25.6%
2026-10-14T14:26:51+00:00	65.2%	24.4%	49.2%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T15:12:23+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	49.2%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T15:57:57+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	49.2%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T16:43:06+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	49.2%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T17:28:12+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	52.4%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T18:13:21+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	52.4%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T18:58:28+00:00	65.2%	26.1%	52.4%	51.3%	26.0%
2026-10-14T19:43:35+00:00	53.5%	26.1%	52.4%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-14T20:28:50+00:00	53.5%	26.1%	52.4%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-14T21:13:56+00:00	53.5%	26.1%	52.4%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-14T21:59:03+00:00	53.5%	26.1%	52.4%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-14T22:44:09+00:00	53.5%	26.1%	52.4%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-14T23:29:33+00:00	53.5%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T00:14:49+00:00	53.5%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T01:01:12+00:00	53.5%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T01:46:19+00:00	57.1%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T02:31:30+00:00	57.1%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T03:16:38+00:00	57.1%	26.6%	42.9%	26.4%	53.6%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	43.2%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	43.2%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	44.0%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	44.0%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	44.0%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	50.0%	18.8%	44.0%	34.7%	46.6%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	44.0%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	44.0%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	44.0%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	44.0%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	52.2%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	49.3%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	49.3%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	49.3%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	49.3%	18.8%	54.3%	29.8%	55.6%
2026-10-17T04:41:54+00:00	47.6%	23.6%	53.9%	22.8%	42.1%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	47.6%	23.6%	57.7%	22.8%	42.1%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	47.6%	23.6%	57.7%	22.8%	42.1%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	47.6%	23.6%	57.7%	22.8%	42.1%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	49.1%	23.6%	57.7%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	49.1%	23.6%	57.7%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	49.1%	23.6%	57.7%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	49.1%	23.6%	57.7%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	49.1%	23.6%	57.7%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	49.1%	27.8%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	49.1%	27.8%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	49.1%	27.8%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	48.3%	27.8%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	48.3%	27.8%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T15:24:55+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	48.9%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	46.8%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	46.8%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	46.8%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	48.3%	19.6%	46.8%	20.6%	38.7%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	46.8%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	46.8%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	46.8%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	46.8%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	50.0%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:12+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	33.4%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	47.9%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	47.9%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	47.9%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	55.2%	19.6%	47.9%	22.4%	27.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	56.5%	19.6%	47.9%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	56.5%	19.6%	47.9%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	56.5%	19.6%	47.9%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	56.5%	19.6%	47.9%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	56.5%	17.3%	32.8%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	56.5%	17.3%	32.8%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	56.5%	17.3%	32.8%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	56.5%	17.3%	32.8%	23.0%	21.0%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	52.8%	18.2%	32.8%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:54+00:00	52.8%	18.2%	32.8%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	32.8%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	32.8%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	31.7%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	31.7%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	52.8%	16.6%	31.7%	23.0%	21.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	31.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	31.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	31.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	31.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	31.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	51.9%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	29.7%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	40.6%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	40.6%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:20+00:00	54.7%	16.6%	40.6%	18.5%	17.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	40.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	40.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	40.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	40.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	53.9%	16.6%	40.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	53.9%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	53.9%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	53.9%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:20+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	32.6%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	25.9%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	25.9%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	51.0%	22.7%	25.9%	21.8%	11.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	25.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	25.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	25.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	25.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	25.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	52.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	28.1%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	53.0%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	8.0%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	57.1%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	57.1%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	57.1%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	57.1%	22.7%	44.9%	12.6%	13.5%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	57.1%	27.1%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%
2026-10-20T15:32:09+00:00	57.1%	26.2%	45.9%	34.3%	13.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	57%	77.2°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	76.2°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	34%	75.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	74.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	14%	72.6°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	13%	73.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	72.0°F	1.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261021-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 14 · 10:33 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 77°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗