KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

41%

36%

35%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.20u · ICON −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	13.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	5.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	10.5%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	28.7%	—	—	—	—	12.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	21.2%	—	—	—	—	25.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.6%	—	—	—	—	26.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	31.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	12.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	13.2%	—	4.5%	—	—	14.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	39.9%	—	30.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	26.2%	—	—	8.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	56.0%	—	63.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	60.7%	0.0%	13.9%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.6%	—	54.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	57.0%	29.2%	10.9%	0.2%	—	32.3%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	54.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	55.8%	42.7%	46.4%	4.4%	—	31.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	56.7%	—	47.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	54.6%	34.4%	49.2%	8.1%	—	36.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	53.9%	—	58.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.4%	35.9%	57.1%	20.6%	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	62.1%	—	—	29.7%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	43.4%	10.8%	44.2%	17.8%	—	26.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	47.4%	18.4%	49.1%	—	—	23.9%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	45.6%	29.9%	45.6%	23.4%	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	24.9%	45.5%	—	—	20.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	23.7%	43.6%	13.9%	—	19.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	43.4%	30.1%	45.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	46.1%	46.1%	45.1%	13.1%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	39.1%	38.2%	47.0%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.8%	33.0%	44.9%	11.3%	—	19.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	44.7%	50.0%	—	—	22.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.1%	37.1%	30.1%	10.4%	42.4%	31.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	45.5%	—	42.2%	0.0%	—	20.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗