KMCI / Thu Oct 22 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

81%

81%

41%

36%

35%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.8¢Risks 57.80u

ICONNO 42.2¢Risks 42.20u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.20u · ICON −42.20u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T11:39:28+00:00	81.8%	40.8%	73.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:55+00:00	81.8%	42.9%	73.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:26+00:00	81.8%	42.9%	73.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:52+00:00	73.6%	42.9%	73.6%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T14:48:26+00:00	73.6%	42.9%	73.6%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T15:34:19+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	73.6%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T16:20:02+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	73.6%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T17:05:24+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T17:50:46+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T18:35:59+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T19:21:08+00:00	73.6%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	3.8%
2026-10-15T20:06:18+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:31+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:44+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:51+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	74.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:04+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:15+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:24+00:00	79.5%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:45+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:20+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:33+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:42+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T04:24:21+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	83.8%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:29+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:57+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:07+00:00	79.0%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	56.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:16+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:11:25+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T08:56:37+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T09:41:43+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T10:26:57+00:00	79.3%	37.6%	84.2%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:12:20+00:00	79.3%	31.0%	83.8%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T11:57:41+00:00	79.3%	31.0%	83.8%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T12:42:50+00:00	79.3%	31.0%	83.8%	50.0%	64.3%
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	80.3%	31.0%	83.8%	45.2%	64.3%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	80.2%	31.0%	83.8%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	80.2%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	64.8%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	88.1%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.8%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.2%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.2%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	78.1%	29.5%	83.2%	45.2%	58.9%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	77.8%	29.5%	83.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	77.8%	29.5%	83.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	77.8%	29.5%	83.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	77.8%	29.5%	83.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	77.8%	29.5%	83.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	77.8%	42.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	77.8%	42.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	77.8%	42.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	76.0%	42.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	76.0%	42.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:57+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	78.2%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	80.9%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	80.9%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	80.9%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	76.0%	33.3%	80.9%	43.8%	55.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	80.9%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	80.9%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	80.9%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	80.9%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:24+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	70.7%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	73.4%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	73.4%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	73.4%	33.3%	69.5%	30.8%	30.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00	70.7%	31.9%	70.4%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	70.7%	28.8%	70.4%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	70.7%	28.8%	70.4%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	70.7%	28.8%	68.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	70.7%	28.8%	68.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	70.7%	28.8%	68.5%	33.7%	44.3%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	68.5%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	68.5%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	68.5%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	68.5%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	68.5%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	71.4%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	72.2%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	72.2%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	72.2%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	72.2%	28.8%	63.6%	28.8%	38.7%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	74.4%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	74.4%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T16:44:20+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	74.4%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	70.5%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	53.0%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	64.0%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	73.7%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	69.4%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	78.8%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	40.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	80.7%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	33.7%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	80.7%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	33.7%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	80.7%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	33.7%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	80.7%	28.9%	79.8%	27.2%	33.7%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.8%	41.3%	33.7%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.8%	41.3%	33.7%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.8%	41.3%	33.7%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.8%	41.3%	33.7%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.9%	41.3%	34.7%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	80.7%	36.4%	80.9%	41.3%	34.7%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	81%	79.2°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	81%	80.0°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	41%	75.6°F	4.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	36%	75.2°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	75.1°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	33%	75.0°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	74.0°F	3.2°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261022-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 15 · 11:39 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Thu Oct 22

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗