KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

62%

59%

43%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

EPSNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · EPS −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	19.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	8.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	28.3%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	13.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	11.2%	—	—	—	—	6.3%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	9.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	26.5%	—	—	—	—	7.5%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	9.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	13.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	20.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	19.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	48.8%	—	0.9%	—	—	11.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	61.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	74.8%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	48.1%	—	23.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	68.2%	—	—	—	—	25.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	60.7%	—	44.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	55.2%	—	2.5%	—	—	24.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	69.1%	—	29.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	0.3%	14.3%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	63.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	63.1%	52.8%	54.2%	0.1%	—	39.6%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	60.1%	37.1%	49.3%	43.4%	—	28.5%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	52.2%	—	66.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	44.7%	4.1%	49.2%	21.6%	—	27.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	49.2%	—	42.2%	—	—	14.1%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	37.5%	56.4%	35.9%	—	30.9%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	—	27.0%	—	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	42.5%	36.1%	51.7%	27.9%	—	25.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	40.7%	17.3%	47.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	48.2%	52.6%	51.7%	21.4%	—	33.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	37.6%	48.2%	59.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	42.7%	57.3%	21.6%	—	25.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	49.0%	57.5%	53.8%	—	—	30.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	51.0%	51.9%	53.9%	22.5%	57.7%	41.3%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	54.0%	—	—	30.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	80.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	77.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	77.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	75.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗