KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST61%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

83%

80%

62%

59%

43%

Consensus

61%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 63.2¢Risks 63.20u

EPSNO 36.8¢Risks 36.80u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +36.80u · EPS −36.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00	86.0%	42.2%	88.0%	50.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	86.0%	42.2%	84.1%	50.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	86.0%	42.2%	84.1%	50.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	86.0%	42.2%	84.1%	50.0%	69.2%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	81.7%	42.2%	84.1%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	81.7%	42.2%	84.1%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	81.7%	42.2%	84.1%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	81.7%	42.2%	84.1%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	81.7%	42.2%	84.1%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	81.7%	40.5%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	81.7%	40.5%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	81.7%	40.5%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	77.0%	40.5%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	77.0%	40.6%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	77.0%	33.8%	79.2%	47.6%	60.5%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	79.2%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	79.2%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	79.2%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	79.2%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	69.8%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	74.1%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	74.1%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	74.1%	33.8%	69.6%	39.3%	22.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00	67.9%	35.1%	71.2%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	67.9%	32.4%	71.2%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	67.9%	32.4%	71.2%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	67.9%	32.4%	72.0%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	67.9%	32.4%	72.0%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	67.9%	32.4%	72.0%	39.1%	57.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	72.0%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	72.0%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	72.0%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	72.0%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	72.0%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	70.0%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	69.3%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	69.3%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	69.3%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	69.3%	32.4%	73.7%	37.8%	56.5%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	79.8%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	79.8%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	79.8%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	73.2%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	73.2%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	67.7%	35.5%	73.2%	43.6%	65.9%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	72.2%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	73.2%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	77.1%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	57.3%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	79.4%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	79.4%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	79.4%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	79.4%	35.5%	84.6%	37.4%	58.9%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	79.4%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	79.4%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	79.4%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	79.4%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	79.5%	43.4%	83.0%	61.5%	58.9%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	83%	79.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	80%	80.0°F	4.2°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	62%	77.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	59%	77.4°F	4.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	55%	77.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	43%	75.9°F	3.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	33%	75.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗