KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

60%

58%

36%

26%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

EPSNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.50u · EPS −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	27.9%	—	—	—	—	8.5%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	8.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	8.9%	—	—	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	7.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	22.4%	—	—	—	—	5.8%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	17.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	15.5%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	10.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	15.4%	—	—	—	—	17.1%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	16.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	—	—	—	15.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	34.3%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	43.0%	—	0.6%	—	—	9.0%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	53.6%	—	55.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	69.8%	—	—	—	—	6.0%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	42.0%	—	18.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	62.4%	—	—	—	—	21.1%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	38.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	1.7%	—	—	19.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	63.0%	—	24.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.3%	0.2%	10.8%	—	—	26.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	58.2%	—	56.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	56.3%	45.8%	47.2%	0.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	60.6%	—	48.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	52.9%	30.4%	42.0%	36.4%	—	22.6%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	58.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	2.7%	41.7%	16.4%	—	21.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	41.5%	—	34.8%	—	—	10.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	38.2%	30.1%	48.4%	28.8%	—	24.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	20.7%	—	—	17.9%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	28.6%	43.4%	21.3%	—	18.9%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	12.3%	39.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	43.9%	43.0%	15.6%	—	25.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	29.4%	39.3%	50.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.9%	33.9%	48.2%	15.4%	—	18.4%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	39.7%	48.1%	44.3%	—	—	22.4%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	41.3%	42.3%	44.2%	15.9%	48.0%	32.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	44.0%	—	—	22.6%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	36.9%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	78.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗