KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 78°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST47%Oct 19 · 14:28 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

71%

60%

58%

36%

26%

Consensus

47%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 48.5¢Risks 48.50u

EPSNO 51.5¢Risks 51.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +51.50u · EPS −51.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-16T13:28:41+00:00	80.0%	35.6%	79.0%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T14:19:48+00:00	79.8%	35.6%	78.9%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T15:05:34+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	78.9%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T15:50:56+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	78.9%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T16:36:12+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	78.9%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T17:21:24+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:06:38+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T18:51:43+00:00	79.8%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	10.6%
2026-10-16T19:37:05+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	65.6%
2026-10-16T20:22:36+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:07:47+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	65.6%
2026-10-16T21:52:55+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	81.1%	34.3%	65.6%
2026-10-16T22:38:06+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	81.1%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-16T23:23:34+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:09:43+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T00:54:58+00:00	78.3%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T01:40:08+00:00	81.7%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T02:25:21+00:00	81.7%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:10:29+00:00	81.7%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-17T03:55:38+00:00	81.7%	34.0%	83.7%	43.8%	65.6%
2026-10-18T04:14:13+00:00	67.8%	26.5%	61.8%	33.6%	18.6%
2026-10-18T05:00:14+00:00	67.8%	26.5%	68.8%	33.6%	18.6%
2026-10-18T05:45:21+00:00	67.8%	26.5%	68.8%	33.6%	18.6%
2026-10-18T06:30:27+00:00	67.8%	26.5%	68.8%	33.6%	18.6%
2026-10-18T07:15:38+00:00	67.8%	26.5%	68.8%	33.6%	18.6%
2026-10-18T08:01:27+00:00	65.7%	26.5%	68.8%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T08:47:11+00:00	65.7%	26.5%	68.8%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T09:32:19+00:00	65.7%	26.5%	68.8%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T10:17:27+00:00	65.7%	26.5%	68.8%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:02:50+00:00	65.7%	24.9%	62.4%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T11:48:15+00:00	65.7%	24.9%	62.4%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T12:33:46+00:00	65.7%	24.9%	62.4%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T13:19:02+00:00	65.7%	24.9%	62.4%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-18T14:04:11+00:00	60.4%	24.9%	62.4%	32.7%	50.7%
2026-10-19T04:31:02+00:00	61.9%	22.9%	65.1%	31.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:06+00:00	61.9%	22.9%	66.0%	31.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:13+00:00	61.9%	22.9%	66.0%	31.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:21+00:00	61.9%	22.9%	66.0%	31.4%	50.0%
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	69.2%	22.9%	66.0%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	69.2%	22.9%	66.0%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	69.2%	22.9%	66.0%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	69.2%	22.9%	66.0%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	69.2%	22.9%	66.0%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:00+00:00	69.2%	25.6%	71.3%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	69.2%	25.6%	71.3%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	69.2%	25.6%	71.3%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	71.3%	35.9%	58.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	59.5%	25.6%	71.4%	35.9%	58.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	71%	79.6°F	3.7°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	60%	78.6°F	4.6°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
ICON	58%	78.5°F	4.9°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	78.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-19 03:00	Pending
National Blend	41%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-19 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	36%	75.7°F	5.0°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	26%	75.2°F	3.5°F	2026-10-19 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 78°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE78
Opened Oct 16 · 13:28 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 78°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗