KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

46%

37%

20%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.8¢Risks 27.75u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.25u · EPS −72.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	10.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	4.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	16.5%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	13.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	4.8%	—	—	—	—	2.1%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	—	—	—	—	2.7%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	4.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	3.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	4.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	11.2%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	14.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	6.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	9.7%	—	—	—	—	11.0%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	10.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	11.3%	—	—	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	24.4%	—	0.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	0.3%	—	—	5.1%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	44.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	58.4%	—	—	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	30.5%	—	11.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	—	—	—	13.2%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	26.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	0.7%	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	50.0%	—	15.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	36.1%	0.1%	5.8%	—	—	16.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	44.5%	—	43.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	42.3%	32.3%	33.6%	0.0%	—	21.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	34.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	38.5%	18.9%	28.5%	23.7%	—	13.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.6%	—	44.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	23.9%	1.0%	27.7%	8.7%	—	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	27.2%	—	21.7%	—	—	4.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	24.2%	17.9%	33.0%	16.9%	—	13.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	19.5%	—	11.0%	—	—	9.2%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.7%	16.2%	27.9%	11.2%	—	9.7%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	19.0%	5.6%	23.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	27.7%	26.9%	7.3%	—	13.6%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	16.1%	23.5%	33.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	19.0%	19.0%	30.6%	7.0%	—	8.6%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	30.1%	26.9%	—	—	10.8%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	24.0%	24.7%	26.3%	6.8%	29.6%	17.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	17.7%	—	25.7%	—	—	10.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	37%	77.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗