KMCI / Fri Oct 23 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST24%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

46%

46%

37%

20%

Consensus

24%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 27.8¢Risks 27.75u

EPSNO 72.2¢Risks 72.25u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +72.25u · EPS −72.25u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T04:41:55+00:00	71.1%	19.8%	72.2%	32.1%	58.0%
2026-10-17T05:28:24+00:00	71.1%	19.8%	66.0%	32.1%	58.0%
2026-10-17T06:13:36+00:00	71.1%	19.8%	66.0%	32.1%	58.0%
2026-10-17T06:58:46+00:00	71.1%	19.8%	66.0%	32.1%	58.0%
2026-10-17T07:44:37+00:00	63.7%	19.8%	66.0%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	63.7%	19.8%	66.0%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	63.7%	19.8%	66.0%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	63.7%	19.8%	66.0%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	63.7%	19.8%	66.0%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	63.7%	18.6%	56.8%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	63.7%	18.6%	56.8%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	63.7%	18.6%	56.8%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	57.3%	18.6%	56.8%	30.6%	43.9%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	57.3%	18.7%	56.8%	30.3%	43.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00	44.4%	10.3%	43.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	44.4%	9.4%	43.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	44.4%	9.4%	43.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	44.4%	9.4%	44.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	44.4%	9.4%	44.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	44.4%	9.4%	44.2%	21.3%	37.8%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	44.2%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	44.2%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	44.2%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	44.2%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	44.2%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	46.8%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	46.0%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	46.0%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	46.0%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	46.0%	9.4%	46.1%	20.4%	37.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	54%	80.0°F	5.2°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	46%	79.1°F	4.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	46%	79.0°F	5.0°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	37%	77.5°F	6.1°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	20%	74.7°F	5.8°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	13%	77.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	9%	74.9°F	3.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261023-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 17 · 04:41 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Fri Oct 23

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗