KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

76%

75%

66%

50%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.4%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	48.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	9.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.2%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	6.6%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	18.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	6.9%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	11.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.9%	—	—	—	—	15.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	3.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	14.6%	—	—	—	—	18.2%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	15.2%	—	—	—	—	14.8%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	21.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	10.2%	—	—	—	—	9.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	23.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	59.6%	—	—	—	—	13.3%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	1.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	—	—	—	24.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	46.4%	—	5.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	33.0%	—	—	—	—	20.6%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	47.5%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	—	—	—	34.7%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	46.2%	—	70.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	43.5%	—	65.2%	—	—	27.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	33.3%	—	46.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	46.0%	0.3%	51.3%	—	—	28.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	41.8%	—	60.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	31.7%	5.4%	55.6%	0.7%	—	28.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	42.9%	—	46.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	43.4%	39.9%	43.4%	37.8%	—	23.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	44.0%	—	54.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	41.7%	33.7%	44.7%	27.7%	—	24.5%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	42.2%	—	49.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	49.2%	49.2%	51.6%	20.6%	—	37.5%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	41.1%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	47.5%	45.8%	56.6%	27.2%	—	30.8%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	50.9%	32.6%	55.1%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	52.6%	63.7%	59.6%	30.7%	51.7%	48.2%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	47.3%	—	55.4%	—	—	39.3%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	53.7%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	79.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	79.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	78.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	76.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	75.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗