KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 77°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST56%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

76%

75%

66%

50%

Consensus

56%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 65.3¢Risks 65.25u

EPSNO 34.7¢Risks 34.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +34.75u · EPS −34.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:47+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-17T07:44:38+00:00	69.9%	44.9%	69.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T08:30:39+00:00	69.9%	44.9%	69.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T09:16:40+00:00	69.9%	44.9%	69.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T10:01:50+00:00	69.9%	44.9%	69.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T10:46:55+00:00	69.9%	44.9%	69.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T11:32:07+00:00	69.9%	42.2%	76.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T12:17:28+00:00	69.9%	42.2%	76.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T13:02:34+00:00	69.9%	42.2%	76.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T13:47:52+00:00	66.8%	42.2%	76.6%	38.4%	11.6%
2026-10-17T14:39:18+00:00	66.8%	42.2%	76.5%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T15:24:58+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	76.5%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:10:32+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	76.5%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T16:55:40+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	74.7%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T17:40:50+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	74.7%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T18:25:57+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	74.7%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:11:04+00:00	66.8%	35.3%	74.7%	38.4%	11.8%
2026-10-17T19:56:13+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	74.7%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-17T20:41:30+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	74.7%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-17T21:26:38+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	74.7%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-17T22:11:54+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	74.7%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-17T22:57:02+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-17T23:42:13+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T00:27:25+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T01:12:55+00:00	56.2%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T01:58:14+00:00	68.1%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T02:43:22+00:00	68.1%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T03:28:30+00:00	68.1%	35.3%	63.8%	45.1%	32.9%
2026-10-18T14:55:56+00:00	70.4%	32.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00	70.4%	30.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00	70.4%	30.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00	70.4%	30.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00	70.4%	30.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00	70.4%	30.4%	71.1%	44.6%	62.6%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	71.1%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	71.1%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	71.1%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	71.1%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	71.1%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00	68.5%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00	69.1%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00	69.1%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00	69.1%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00	69.1%	30.4%	74.0%	47.6%	58.3%
2026-10-20T04:04:47+00:00	76.7%	39.9%	78.2%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	76.7%	39.9%	78.2%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	76.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	76.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	76.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	64.1%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	79.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	75.1%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	79.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	75.1%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	79.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	75.1%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	79.7%	39.9%	88.8%	45.2%	75.1%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.5%	75.1%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.5%	75.1%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.5%	75.1%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.5%	75.1%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T15:32:09+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T16:18:00+00:00	79.7%	50.0%	88.2%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T17:03:24+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	80.5%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T17:48:39+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	80.5%	65.6%	75.1%
2026-10-20T18:33:47+00:00	75.8%	50.0%	80.5%	65.6%	75.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	79.7°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	76%	79.7°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
ICON	75%	79.8°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	66%	78.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	77.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	50%	76.5°F	3.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	22%	75.0°F	1.9°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 77°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE77
Opened Oct 17 · 07:44 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City runs hot-for-here: 77°F+ · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗