KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

50%

48%

42%

30%

10%

Consensus

30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u

EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.05u · EPS −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	4.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	32.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	1.6%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	2.8%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	3.0%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	1.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.3%	—	—	—	—	5.5%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	0.3%	—	—	—	—	8.1%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	7.3%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	7.6%	—	—	—	—	7.4%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	11.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	4.6%	—	—	—	—	4.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	14.0%	—	12.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	42.7%	—	—	—	—	6.2%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	37.3%	—	—	—	—	12.9%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	29.5%	—	1.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	18.5%	—	—	—	—	10.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	29.9%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	31.3%	—	—	—	—	19.3%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	28.2%	—	51.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.7%	—	46.1%	—	—	13.7%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	17.6%	—	28.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	0.1%	31.8%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.4%	—	39.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	15.8%	1.7%	34.9%	0.1%	—	13.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	23.6%	—	26.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	23.7%	21.0%	23.7%	19.4%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	—	32.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	21.6%	16.0%	23.9%	12.2%	—	10.3%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.7%	—	27.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	26.8%	26.8%	28.8%	7.8%	—	17.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.1%	—	28.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	24.5%	23.2%	32.2%	10.8%	—	12.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	26.7%	13.7%	30.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	27.7%	37.9%	33.8%	12.2%	26.9%	24.1%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	29.4%	—	—	17.2%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
NWS forecast	53%	80.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	50%	79.5°F	4.7°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
AIFS Single	48%	79.2°F	5.4°F	2026-10-18 18:00	Pending
ICON	42%	78.0°F	7.2°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
IFS HRES	30%	76.1°F	6.6°F	2026-10-18 12:00	Pending
National Blend	23%	77.0°F	3.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	10%	74.5°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗