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KMCI / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 80°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST30%Oct 19 · 03:45 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
WN2
50%
AIFS
48%
ICON
42%
HRES
30%
EPS
10%
Consensus
30%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
WN2YES 29.9¢Risks 29.95u
VS
EPSNO 70.0¢Risks 70.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +70.05u · EPS −70.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00AIFS Single: 49.3% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00AIFS Single: 47.1% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00AIFS Single: 47.8% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 11.2% · 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS Ensemble: 9.9% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00WeatherNext 2: 46.6% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00WeatherNext 2: 50.0% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00IFS HRES: 27.7% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00IFS HRES: 30.3% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:00ICON: 46.1% · 2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:00ICON: 41.7% · 2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0010-18 14:5510-18 21:4310-19 03:45
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-18T14:55:55+00:0049.3%11.2%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:31+00:0049.3%9.9%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:59+00:0049.3%9.9%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:08+00:0049.3%9.9%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:29+00:0049.3%9.9%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:47+00:0049.3%9.9%46.6%27.7%46.1%
2026-10-18T19:27:58+00:0047.1%9.9%46.6%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T20:13:08+00:0047.1%9.9%46.6%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T20:58:17+00:0047.1%9.9%46.6%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T21:43:26+00:0047.1%9.9%46.6%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T22:28:33+00:0047.1%9.9%46.6%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T23:13:42+00:0047.1%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-18T23:58:54+00:0047.1%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-19T00:44:07+00:0047.1%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-19T01:29:35+00:0047.8%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-19T02:14:46+00:0047.8%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-19T02:59:58+00:0047.8%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
2026-10-19T03:45:05+00:0047.8%9.9%50.0%30.3%41.7%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
NWS forecast53%80.0°F5.9°F2026-10-18 14:00Pending
WeatherNext 250%79.5°F4.7°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
AIFS Single48%79.2°F5.4°F2026-10-18 18:00Pending
ICON42%78.0°F7.2°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
IFS HRES30%76.1°F6.6°F2026-10-18 12:00Pending
National Blend23%77.0°F3.3°F2026-10-18 06:00Pending
IFS Ensemble10%74.5°F3.9°F2026-10-18 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 80°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261024-TMAX-GE80
Opened Oct 18 · 14:55 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 80°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗