KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

53%

50%

39%

17%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

WN2NO 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.05u · WN2 −63.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	2.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	6.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	2.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	3.2%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	1.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	0.7%	—	—	—	—	9.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	7.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	—	—	—	—	4.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	6.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	—	—	—	—	3.8%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	7.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	0.2%	—	—	—	—	8.7%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	0.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	11.0%	—	—	—	—	5.3%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	11.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	64.6%	—	—	—	—	8.8%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	6.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	—	—	—	12.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	15.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	2.2%	—	—	—	—	12.2%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	6.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	35.7%	—	—	—	—	16.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	64.8%	—	6.0%	—	—	9.5%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	38.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	37.0%	—	0.2%	—	—	29.1%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	38.0%	—	28.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	0.6%	—	—	26.8%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	16.7%	—	23.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	38.0%	0.7%	34.2%	—	—	15.1%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	22.9%	—	38.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	41.6%	24.6%	0.2%	2.2%	—	13.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	23.1%	—	21.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	29.1%	1.5%	17.9%	23.2%	4.4%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	21.6%	—	1.1%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	57%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	75.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	69.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗