KMCI / Mon Oct 26 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 76°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST33%Oct 20 · 14:46 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

57%

53%

50%

39%

17%

Consensus

33%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

HRESYES 36.9¢Risks 36.95u

WN2NO 63.1¢Risks 63.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

HRES +63.05u · WN2 −63.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T07:33:19+00:00	62.9%	37.9%	25.6%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T08:19:22+00:00	62.9%	37.9%	25.6%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T09:04:28+00:00	62.9%	37.9%	25.6%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T09:49:35+00:00	62.9%	37.9%	25.6%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T10:35:17+00:00	62.9%	37.9%	25.6%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T11:21:01+00:00	62.9%	41.5%	27.9%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T12:06:35+00:00	62.9%	41.5%	27.9%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T12:51:51+00:00	62.9%	41.5%	27.9%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T13:37:00+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	27.9%	7.9%	16.1%
2026-10-19T14:28:00+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	27.8%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T15:13:38+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	27.8%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T15:59:08+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	27.8%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T16:44:21+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	27.8%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T17:29:31+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	1.4%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T18:14:39+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	1.4%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T19:00:05+00:00	46.5%	41.5%	1.4%	7.9%	16.2%
2026-10-19T19:45:30+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	1.4%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T20:30:40+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	1.4%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T21:15:54+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	1.4%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T22:01:03+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	1.4%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T22:46:16+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	1.4%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-19T23:31:29+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T00:17:00+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T01:02:39+00:00	66.8%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T01:47:49+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T02:32:58+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T03:18:06+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T04:04:49+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T04:51:22+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	2.9%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T05:36:29+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T06:21:42+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T07:06:48+00:00	47.9%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	52.8%
2026-10-20T07:51:59+00:00	50.0%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T08:37:09+00:00	50.0%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T09:22:24+00:00	50.0%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:07:47+00:00	50.0%	41.5%	1.6%	7.7%	53.4%
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%
2026-10-20T14:46:24+00:00	50.0%	38.7%	17.3%	56.6%	53.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS HRES	57%	76.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	53%	76.1°F	7.1°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	50%	75.5°F	5.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	39%	73.6°F	6.6°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	22%	71.0°F	5.9°F	2026-10-20 03:00	Pending
National Blend	20%	69.0°F	7.8°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	17%	71.1°F	4.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 76°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261026-TMAX-GE76
Opened Oct 19 · 07:33 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 76°F · Mon Oct 26

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗