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KMCI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
55%
ICON
38%
WN2
36%
AIFS
23%
HRES
10%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.50u
VS
HRESNO 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.50u · HRES −67.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.7% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 17.2% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 18.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 54.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.8% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 30.6% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.5% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 83.2% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 34.0% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 27.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 65.0% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 20.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 85.7% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 89.7% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 77.4% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 75.1% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 61.2% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 82.3% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 43.9% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.7% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 51.3% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 80.2% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 37.6% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 7.5% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 68.6% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 22.3% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 16.5% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 21.1% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 24.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.5% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.4% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00GEM: 79.2% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 43.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 25.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 29.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 34.5% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 36.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 42.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 50.5% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 57.4% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 59.8% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 56.2% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 70.7% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 68.1% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 41.9% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 53.9% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 24.9% · 2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:0010-12 12:0010-16 12:0010-20 06:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSGEMIFS archive
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSGEMIFS*
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:003.0%———2.3%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:001.8%————
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:003.7%———43.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:0017.2%————
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:0018.2%———25.2%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:0054.8%————
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:009.8%———29.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:0082.8%————
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:007.1%———34.5%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:0010.5%————
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:0030.6%———36.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:0034.5%————
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:0083.2%———42.1%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:0034.0%————
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:0027.0%———50.5%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:0065.0%————
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:0051.1%———57.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:0075.1%————
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:0020.0%———59.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:0085.7%————
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:0089.7%———56.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:0077.4%————
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:0075.1%—68.6%—70.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:0061.2%—22.3%——
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:0082.3%———68.1%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:0043.9%—16.5%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:0080.7%—21.1%—41.9%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:0051.3%—24.0%——
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:0080.2%—2.5%—53.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0037.6%—3.4%——
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:007.5%9.6%0.8%79.2%24.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:000.1%—0.1%——
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble55%67.8°F9.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%67.0°F9.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON38%63.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 236%64.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single23%62.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES10%58.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261027-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗