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KMCI / Tue Oct 27 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Kansas City, MOHigh ≥ 67°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST28%Oct 20 · 13:55 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
55%
ICON
38%
WN2
36%
AIFS
23%
HRES
10%
Consensus
28%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 32.5¢Risks 32.50u
VS
HRESNO 67.5¢Risks 67.50u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +67.50u · HRES −67.50u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00AIFS Single: 22.7% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00AIFS Single: 22.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS Ensemble: 55.4% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00WeatherNext 2: 36.2% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00IFS HRES: 9.6% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:00ICON: 37.9% · 2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:00ICON: 37.8% · 2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0010-20 10:5310-20 12:2410-20 13:55
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-20T10:53:48+00:0022.7%55.4%36.2%9.6%37.9%
2026-10-20T11:39:45+00:0022.7%55.4%36.2%9.6%37.9%
2026-10-20T12:24:53+00:0022.7%55.4%36.2%9.6%37.9%
2026-10-20T13:10:04+00:0022.7%55.4%36.2%9.6%37.9%
2026-10-20T13:55:20+00:0022.6%55.4%36.2%9.6%37.8%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble55%67.8°F9.6°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
National Blend52%67.0°F9.9°F2026-10-20 06:00Pending
ICON38%63.4°F10.0°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
WeatherNext 236%64.7°F5.1°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
AIFS Single23%62.2°F5.7°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending
IFS HRES10%58.1°F6.4°F2026-10-20 00:00Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 67°F · KMCI

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCI-20261027-TMAX-GE67
Opened Oct 20 · 10:53 UTC

Original listing: Kansas City high ≥ 67°F · Tue Oct 27

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗