KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

98%

87%

86%

73%

68%

Consensus

92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

EPSYES 83.0¢Risks 82.95u

ICONNO 17.0¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.05u · ICON −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00	24.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00	24.0%	—	—	—	—	18.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00	79.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00	82.8%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00	74.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00	55.8%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00	4.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	63.6%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	8.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	33.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	57.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	76.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	73.5%	—	—	—	—	65.5%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	67.0%	—	—	—	—	56.4%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	82.2%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	16.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	27.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	56.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	47.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	40.1%	—	—	—	—	47.6%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	33.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	31.9%	—	0.6%	—	—	63.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	56.1%	—	15.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	52.5%	—	—	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	54.5%	—	16.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	47.4%	—	—	58.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	67.3%	—	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	65.2%	31.8%	35.5%	—	—	62.6%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	65.5%	—	60.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	65.7%	50.0%	37.6%	25.2%	—	54.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	65.4%	—	59.9%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	65.7%	58.7%	50.0%	68.3%	—	58.7%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	61.8%	—	53.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	80.0%	44.7%	54.6%	—	57.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	54.7%	—	73.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	54.8%	80.0%	73.9%	17.4%	—	45.2%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	50.8%	20.1%	50.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	50.0%	33.8%	64.7%	14.3%	—	21.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	55.1%	53.4%	59.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	24.1%	41.3%	62.1%	14.6%	—	27.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	55.4%	78.5%	76.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	41.8%	53.7%	36.4%	—	29.7%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	39.7%	46.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	27.1%	49.0%	31.3%	60.6%	—	12.6%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	25.7%	44.0%	26.5%	—	—	17.7%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	25.1%	34.0%	25.9%	44.9%	—	34.9%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	29.8%	36.5%	44.7%	—	—	27.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	30.1%	34.1%	44.5%	18.3%	0.0%	29.2%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	30.5%	35.7%	32.6%	0.1%	—	24.9%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	28.0%	33.1%	23.3%	15.3%	18.3%	24.2%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	25.3%	20.8%	34.7%	22.5%	—	20.8%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	25.6%	20.8%	24.6%	20.8%	0.1%	26.6%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	23.8%	20.0%	33.7%	24.8%	—	22.8%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	20.0%	8.9%	38.1%	18.2%	29.5%	26.2%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	22.1%	11.1%	37.7%	9.8%	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	23.4%	14.6%	33.1%	33.1%	29.3%	21.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	9.9%	18.1%	35.2%	17.2%	—	9.2%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	7.1%	21.4%	33.1%	14.2%	8.9%	6.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	0.0%	16.0%	25.4%	15.0%	—	7.3%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble	98%	85.2°F	2.2°F	2026-10-12 00:00	0.9683
AIFS Single	87%	86.9°F	5.6°F	2026-10-12 18:00	0.7621
WeatherNext 2	86%	85.9°F	5.0°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.7413
IFS HRES	73%	84.4°F	6.3°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.5344
ICON	68%	85.0°F	9.9°F	2026-10-12 12:00	0.4556
National Blend	55%	81.0°F	4.4°F	2026-10-12 06:00	0.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗