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KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 81°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 13 · 03:30 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
EPS
98%
AIFS
87%
WN2
86%
HRES
73%
ICON
68%
Consensus
92%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
EPSYES 83.0¢Risks 82.95u
VS
ICONNO 17.0¢Risks 17.05u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

EPS +17.05u · ICON −17.05u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00AIFS Single: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00AIFS Single: 87.6% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00AIFS Single: 87.3% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00IFS Ensemble: 85.0% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS Ensemble: 98.4% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.9% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00WeatherNext 2: 87.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00WeatherNext 2: 89.8% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00WeatherNext 2: 86.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00IFS HRES: 71.5% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00IFS HRES: 73.1% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00ICON: 56.8% · 2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00ICON: 67.5% · 2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:0010-12 11:3510-12 19:5810-13 03:30
AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSEPSWN2HRESICON
2026-10-12T11:35:27+00:0087.8%85.0%87.9%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:0087.8%98.4%87.9%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:0087.8%98.4%87.9%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:0087.8%98.4%87.9%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:0087.6%98.4%87.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:0087.6%98.4%87.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:0087.6%98.4%87.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%71.5%56.8%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:0087.6%98.4%89.8%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:0087.6%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:0087.6%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:0087.6%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:0087.6%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:0087.3%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:0087.3%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:0087.3%98.4%86.1%73.1%67.5%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
IFS Ensemble98%85.2°F2.2°F2026-10-12 00:000.9683
AIFS Single87%86.9°F5.6°F2026-10-12 18:000.7621
WeatherNext 286%85.9°F5.0°F2026-10-12 12:000.7413
IFS HRES73%84.4°F6.3°F2026-10-12 12:000.5344
ICON68%85.0°F9.9°F2026-10-12 12:000.4556
National Blend55%81.0°F4.4°F2026-10-12 06:000.2970

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 81°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE81
Opened Oct 12 · 11:35 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 81°F · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗