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KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC
THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%
AIFS
17%
WN2
7%
ICON
4%
HRES
1%
EPS
1%
Consensus
2%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED
AIFSYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u
VS
EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

RecordedReconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

0%25%50%75%100%AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.8% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 35.4% · 2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 40.0% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 29.2% · 2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.6% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.8% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.2% · 2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.5% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 32.0% · 2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 28.3% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.0% · 2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 22.4% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 26.1% · 2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 38.9% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.4% · 2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.1% · 2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 1.8% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.5% · 2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.8% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.9% · 2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.3% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.8% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.2% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 15.6% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 14.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.8% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 12.3% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 11.1% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 10.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 8.3% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 9.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 5.0% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 4.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.0% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 3.6% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 2.9% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00AIFS Single: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 2.3% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 5.6% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 18.9% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 16.9% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.4% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 10.8% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.1% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 1.3% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.8% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.2% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00ICON: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.8% · 2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.7% · 2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.2% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.7% · 2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 10.1% · 2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.9% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 8.6% · 2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.9% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 5.6% · 2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.2% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.8% · 2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 12.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 3.3% · 2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 6.6% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.5% · 2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 4.7% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 9.6% · 2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 2.3% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 1.3% · 2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.4% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.2% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.6% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.5% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00GFS: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 1.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 12.0% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 5.4% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.3% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.2% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.1% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.8% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 2.7% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.7% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00UKMET: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00GEM: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 1.9% · 2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 19.7% · 2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.4% · 2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.9% · 2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 21.2% · 2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 14.9% · 2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.3% · 2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.2% · 2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 13.0% · 2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.3% · 2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 15.4% · 2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 8.5% · 2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 10.4% · 2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 11.4% · 2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.2% · 2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 7.6% · 2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 6.3% · 2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 2.7% · 2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.5% · 2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.4% · 2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.3% · 2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.1% · 2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00IFS archive: 0.0% · 2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:0010-04 06:0010-12 00:0010-19 18:00
AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00 · UTC
View the forecast data
UTCAIFSICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS*
2026-10-04T06:00:00+00:003.0%—————
2026-10-04T12:00:00+00:002.8%————1.9%
2026-10-04T18:00:00+00:0035.4%—————
2026-10-05T00:00:00+00:0040.0%————14.9%
2026-10-05T06:00:00+00:0029.2%—————
2026-10-05T12:00:00+00:0014.6%————13.4%
2026-10-05T18:00:00+00:000.2%—————
2026-10-06T00:00:00+00:002.7%————19.7%
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:000.5%—————
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:009.8%————13.4%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:005.2%—————
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:0026.5%————15.9%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:0032.0%—————
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:0028.3%————21.2%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:0022.0%—————
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:0022.4%————14.9%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:0026.1%—————
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:0038.9%————13.3%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:001.4%—————
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:002.9%————13.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:003.1%—————
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:001.8%————13.0%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:008.5%—————
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:005.8%————8.3%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:003.9%—————
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:003.3%—0.0%——15.4%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:0010.8%—0.8%———
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:008.8%————8.5%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:009.2%—0.7%———
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:0015.6%—6.2%——10.4%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:0014.7%—6.7%———
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:0012.8%2.3%2.9%——11.4%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:0012.3%—10.1%———
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:0011.9%5.6%2.9%1.2%—7.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:0011.1%—8.6%———
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:0010.6%7.6%4.9%12.0%—7.6%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:008.3%—5.6%———
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:009.3%18.9%3.2%5.4%—6.3%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:005.0%—12.8%———
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:004.7%16.9%12.3%0.3%—2.7%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:003.4%0.4%3.3%———
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:003.0%1.1%6.6%0.2%—0.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:003.6%3.3%4.5%———
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:000.4%1.4%4.7%0.1%—0.5%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:002.9%10.8%9.6%———
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:000.3%1.1%2.3%0.8%—0.4%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:000.5%0.8%1.3%———
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:000.2%1.3%0.4%2.7%—0.0%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:000.2%0.8%0.2%——0.1%
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.3%0.1%0.7%—0.3%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:000.2%0.3%0.6%——0.1%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.5%0.0%0.0%0.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:000.1%0.2%0.1%0.0%—0.1%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:000.1%0.1%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.1%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%——
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:000.0%0.0%0.0%0.0%—0.0%
THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODELYESMEANSPREAD σINITIALIZATION UTCBRIER ↓
AIFS Single17%85.2°F4.6°F2026-10-15 06:000.0303
WeatherNext 27%83.9°F3.7°F2026-10-15 00:000.0044
NWS forecast5%82.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 03:000.0022
ICON4%81.2°F4.9°F2026-10-15 00:000.0019
IFS HRES1%78.5°F5.0°F2026-10-15 00:000.0002
IFS Ensemble1%80.6°F3.8°F2026-10-15 00:000.0001
National Blend1%79.0°F4.5°F2026-10-15 06:000.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗