KMCO / Mon Oct 19 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 90°F

FINAL OUTCOMENOOct 15 · 14:48 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

17%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 9.2¢Risks 4.60u

EPSNO 90.8¢Risks 45.40u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +45.40u · EPS −45.40u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-12T07:48:00+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	21.4%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T08:34:24+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	21.4%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T09:19:37+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	21.4%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T10:04:57+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	21.4%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T10:50:08+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	21.4%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T11:35:28+00:00	32.7%	1.5%	25.9%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T12:20:47+00:00	32.7%	2.5%	25.9%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T13:05:54+00:00	32.7%	2.5%	25.9%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T13:51:05+00:00	32.7%	2.5%	25.9%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T14:41:16+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	26.0%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T15:26:51+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	26.0%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T16:12:55+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	26.0%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T16:58:02+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T17:43:12+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T18:28:19+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T19:13:25+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	19.7%	23.0%
2026-10-12T19:58:31+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-12T20:43:42+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-12T21:28:49+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-12T22:13:56+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	29.3%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-12T22:59:08+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-12T23:44:17+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T00:29:23+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T01:14:39+00:00	32.8%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T01:59:46+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T02:44:55+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T03:30:01+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T04:15:34+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	23.4%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T05:01:44+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	24.1%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T05:46:51+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	24.1%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T06:32:09+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	24.1%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T07:17:17+00:00	32.2%	2.5%	24.1%	21.1%	32.5%
2026-10-13T08:03:03+00:00	30.6%	2.5%	24.1%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T08:49:39+00:00	30.6%	2.5%	24.1%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T09:34:44+00:00	30.6%	2.5%	24.1%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T10:19:54+00:00	30.6%	2.5%	24.1%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:05:15+00:00	30.6%	1.4%	20.3%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T11:50:35+00:00	30.6%	1.4%	20.3%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T12:35:48+00:00	30.6%	1.4%	20.3%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T13:20:54+00:00	30.6%	1.4%	20.3%	19.7%	27.0%
2026-10-13T14:06:01+00:00	26.7%	1.4%	20.3%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T14:56:03+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	20.3%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T15:41:23+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	20.3%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T16:27:02+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	20.3%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T17:12:09+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T17:57:16+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T18:42:22+00:00	26.7%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	27.5%
2026-10-13T19:27:27+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:12:33+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T20:57:42+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T21:43:10+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	18.5%	19.7%	44.4%
2026-10-13T22:28:23+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	18.5%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:13:34+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-13T23:58:44+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T00:43:52+00:00	29.2%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T01:29:08+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:14:17+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T02:59:38+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T03:45:28+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T04:30:44+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T05:15:51+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:00:58+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T06:46:13+00:00	20.9%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	44.4%
2026-10-14T07:31:26+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	35.4%
2026-10-14T08:16:34+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	35.4%
2026-10-14T09:01:44+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	35.4%
2026-10-14T09:46:52+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	21.6%	17.6%	35.4%
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	19.3%	1.2%	21.6%	14.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	19.3%	1.4%	10.3%	14.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	19.3%	1.4%	10.3%	14.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	19.3%	1.4%	10.3%	14.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	16.6%	1.4%	10.3%	14.9%	35.4%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	16.7%	1.4%	10.3%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	10.3%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	10.3%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	10.3%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	6.6%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	6.6%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	16.7%	1.5%	6.6%	14.9%	35.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	18.8%	1.5%	10.7%	1.8%	7.9%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	17.4%	1.0%	6.6%	1.4%	4.4%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	17.4%	1.0%	6.6%	1.4%	4.4%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	17%	85.2°F	4.6°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0303
WeatherNext 2	7%	83.9°F	3.7°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0044
NWS forecast	5%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 03:00	0.0022
ICON	4%	81.2°F	4.9°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0019
IFS HRES	1%	78.5°F	5.0°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0002
IFS Ensemble	1%	80.6°F	3.8°F	2026-10-15 00:00	0.0001
National Blend	1%	79.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-15 06:00	0.0001

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 90°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261019-TMAX-GE90
Opened Oct 12 · 07:48 UTC

Original listing: A 90° day in Orlando · Mon Oct 19

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗