KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

73%

58%

55%

35%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.45u · ICON −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	16.9%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	75.6%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	68.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	52.7%	—	—	—	—	53.7%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	71.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	66.5%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	56.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	77.2%	—	—	—	—	47.9%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	50.0%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	42.1%	—	—	—	—	55.3%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	44.7%	—	—	—	—	52.7%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	40.5%	—	—	—	—	59.5%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	20.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	32.5%	—	—	—	—	54.9%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	53.3%	—	52.2%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	67.6%	—	—	—	—	57.3%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	61.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	55.3%	—	21.8%	—	—	51.8%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	59.5%	—	60.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	59.0%	—	—	—	—	48.2%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	61.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	64.7%	—	18.5%	—	—	51.9%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.6%	—	69.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.8%	—	53.2%	—	—	56.5%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	72.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	56.1%	17.6%	63.9%	—	—	47.3%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	37.1%	—	64.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	43.0%	53.5%	50.7%	16.6%	—	40.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	80.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	30.4%	40.6%	52.9%	42.7%	—	33.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	44.8%	—	74.4%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	35.8%	59.1%	17.4%	46.2%	—	30.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	32.6%	—	51.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	34.5%	52.4%	50.8%	48.4%	—	24.2%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	40.3%	4.3%	38.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	37.7%	52.5%	59.9%	32.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	39.0%	54.3%	55.1%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	39.6%	57.8%	47.4%	40.5%	—	33.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	39.3%	48.2%	24.9%	—	—	31.8%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	35.6%	51.8%	56.4%	48.2%	—	33.0%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	35.2%	52.8%	52.8%	—	—	33.5%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	39.4%	59.6%	15.3%	33.9%	—	34.8%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	34.4%	38.2%	13.0%	—	—	32.6%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	29.4%	49.0%	46.9%	33.0%	—	33.0%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	69.3%	28.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	34.1%	47.8%	39.2%	24.7%	—	29.2%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	35.7%	46.6%	48.9%	0.0%	—	29.6%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	33.1%	45.4%	15.3%	32.0%	0.0%	28.9%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	35.9%	60.7%	37.0%	25.3%	—	28.3%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	34.2%	47.5%	30.9%	25.6%	48.8%	30.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	34.9%	—	15.0%	33.7%	—	32.5%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	84.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	83.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	82.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗