KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST62%Oct 20 · 15:31 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

80%

73%

58%

55%

35%

Consensus

62%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 57.6¢Risks 57.55u

ICONNO 42.4¢Risks 42.45u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +42.45u · ICON −42.45u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	70.3%	86.0%	82.1%	41.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	70.3%	86.0%	82.1%	41.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	70.3%	86.0%	84.1%	41.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	70.3%	86.0%	84.1%	41.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	70.3%	86.0%	84.1%	41.3%	69.6%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	84.1%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	84.1%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	84.1%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	84.1%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	84.1%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	57.4%	86.0%	82.7%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	57.4%	50.0%	82.7%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	57.4%	50.0%	82.7%	37.5%	62.8%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	82.7%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	73.0%	50.0%	82.7%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	82.7%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	82.7%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	81.0%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	81.0%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	81.0%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	73.0%	51.6%	81.0%	37.5%	62.7%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	63.1%	51.6%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	63.1%	51.6%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	63.1%	51.6%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	63.1%	51.6%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	63.1%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	63.1%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	63.1%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	79.8%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T05:55:53+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	60.2%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	75.0%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	62.6%	50.0%	81.0%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	62.6%	34.9%	81.6%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	62.6%	34.9%	81.6%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	62.6%	34.9%	81.6%	39.3%	69.2%
2026-10-16T13:28:14+00:00	68.6%	34.9%	81.6%	29.0%	69.2%
2026-10-16T14:19:41+00:00	68.6%	34.9%	81.6%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	81.6%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	81.6%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	81.6%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	83.5%	29.0%	69.1%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	83.5%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	67.1%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	68.6%	35.6%	85.2%	55.5%	69.1%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	85.2%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	85.2%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	86.4%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	86.4%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	86.4%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	70.7%	68.2%	86.4%	49.2%	70.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	86.4%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	86.4%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	86.4%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	86.4%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	66.8%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T04:13:50+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	83.9%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	82.6%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	82.6%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	82.6%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	67.6%	68.2%	82.6%	52.4%	65.1%
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00	72.0%	68.2%	82.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	72.0%	68.2%	82.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	72.0%	68.2%	82.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	72.0%	68.2%	82.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	72.0%	73.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.6%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	68.0%	72.6%	83.6%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	68.0%	72.6%	83.6%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	68.0%	65.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	68.0%	65.3%	83.6%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	68.0%	65.3%	82.9%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	68.0%	65.3%	82.9%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	68.0%	65.3%	82.9%	52.7%	66.5%
2026-10-18T19:27:55+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	82.9%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:13:05+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	82.9%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T20:58:14+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	82.9%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T21:43:24+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	82.9%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T22:28:31+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	82.9%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:13:39+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-18T23:58:49+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T00:44:05+00:00	63.7%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T01:29:31+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:14:44+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T02:59:55+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T03:45:03+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	80.5%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	78.8%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	78.8%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	66.3%	65.3%	78.8%	44.6%	56.0%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	69.8%	65.3%	78.8%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	69.8%	65.3%	78.8%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	69.8%	65.3%	78.8%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	69.8%	65.3%	78.8%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	69.8%	65.3%	78.8%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	69.8%	56.9%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	69.8%	56.9%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	69.8%	56.9%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	70.6%	56.9%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	70.7%	56.9%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:13:23+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T15:59:07+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T16:44:15+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	78.1%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T17:29:27+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	83.3%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T18:14:37+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	83.3%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T18:59:53+00:00	70.7%	55.2%	83.3%	38.5%	44.4%
2026-10-19T19:45:27+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	83.3%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-19T20:30:37+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	83.3%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-19T21:15:50+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	83.3%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:00:59+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	83.3%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-19T22:46:10+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	83.3%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-19T23:31:27+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T00:16:46+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:02:37+00:00	69.8%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T01:47:44+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T02:32:54+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T03:18:03+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:04:19+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T04:51:20+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T05:36:27+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T06:21:39+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:06:47+00:00	72.4%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	42.2%
2026-10-20T07:51:54+00:00	72.9%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	34.6%
2026-10-20T08:37:07+00:00	72.9%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	34.6%
2026-10-20T09:22:23+00:00	72.9%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:07:45+00:00	72.9%	55.2%	79.9%	36.6%	34.6%
2026-10-20T10:53:18+00:00	72.9%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T11:39:43+00:00	72.9%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T12:24:51+00:00	72.9%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:10:00+00:00	72.9%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T13:55:11+00:00	73.0%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T14:46:22+00:00	73.0%	63.6%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00	73.0%	58.3%	80.5%	55.4%	34.6%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	80%	84.0°F	2.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
AIFS Single	73%	83.9°F	3.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	60%	82.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	58%	82.0°F	2.4°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	56%	82.0°F	3.1°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS HRES	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	35%	80.1°F	3.5°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 15 · 04:02 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗