KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 18:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.4¢Risks 5.20u

EPSNO 89.6¢Risks 44.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · EPS −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-06T06:00:00+00:00	0.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-06T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	—	—	—	—	2.6%
2026-10-06T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T00:00:00+00:00	45.8%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-07T06:00:00+00:00	37.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-07T12:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	—	—	—	24.0%
2026-10-07T18:00:00+00:00	41.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T00:00:00+00:00	35.4%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-08T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-08T12:00:00+00:00	47.9%	—	—	—	—	19.7%
2026-10-08T18:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T00:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	21.2%
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	18.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	15.9%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	31.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	17.5%	—	—	—	—	23.2%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	19.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	14.8%	—	—	—	—	28.7%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	5.0%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	10.0%	—	—	—	—	24.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	22.5%	—	21.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	34.5%	—	—	—	—	25.2%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	28.1%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	22.7%	—	4.8%	—	—	20.1%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	25.5%	—	26.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	24.7%	—	—	—	—	16.9%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	25.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	28.5%	—	3.3%	—	—	18.5%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	26.1%	—	32.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	28.4%	—	18.5%	—	—	20.7%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	23.2%	—	34.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	19.4%	2.6%	25.4%	—	—	13.9%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	8.6%	—	25.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	10.9%	16.6%	14.9%	2.1%	—	9.9%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	10.7%	—	41.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	5.3%	9.0%	15.2%	10.0%	—	6.4%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	10.5%	—	32.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	6.5%	17.9%	1.8%	10.7%	—	5.0%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	5.2%	—	12.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	5.5%	12.7%	11.9%	10.8%	—	2.9%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	7.0%	0.2%	6.5%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	5.8%	11.6%	15.7%	4.3%	—	4.5%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	5.9%	11.9%	12.3%	—	—	0.0%
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	5.7%	13.1%	8.3%	5.9%	—	4.1%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	5.2%	8.1%	2.1%	—	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	3.9%	9.0%	11.0%	7.6%	—	3.4%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	3.6%	8.8%	8.8%	—	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	4.2%	11.1%	0.6%	3.0%	—	3.2%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	2.8%	3.5%	0.4%	—	—	2.5%
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	1.8%	5.8%	5.2%	2.4%	—	2.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	1.9%	13.8%	1.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	2.0%	4.5%	2.8%	1.0%	—	1.4%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	1.9%	3.8%	4.2%	0.0%	—	1.3%
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	1.4%	3.1%	0.3%	1.3%	0.0%	1.1%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	1.5%	6.2%	1.6%	0.7%	—	0.9%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	1.1%	2.6%	0.9%	0.6%	2.8%	0.9%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	1.0%	—	0.1%	0.9%	—	0.8%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	83.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.3°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗