KMCO / Wed Oct 21 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 88°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST2%Oct 18 · 18:42 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

20%

17%

14%

10%

<1%

Consensus

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

WN2YES 10.4¢Risks 5.20u

EPSNO 89.6¢Risks 44.80u

50 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

WN2 +44.80u · EPS −44.80u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-14T10:32:31+00:00	42.9%	13.5%	54.4%	17.6%	24.0%
2026-10-14T11:20:45+00:00	42.9%	8.7%	31.5%	17.6%	24.0%
2026-10-14T12:06:12+00:00	42.9%	8.7%	31.5%	17.6%	24.0%
2026-10-14T12:51:19+00:00	42.9%	8.7%	31.5%	17.6%	24.0%
2026-10-14T13:36:27+00:00	24.9%	8.7%	31.5%	17.6%	24.0%
2026-10-14T14:26:49+00:00	24.9%	8.7%	31.6%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T15:12:09+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	31.6%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T15:57:54+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	31.6%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T16:43:03+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	31.6%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T17:28:11+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	39.0%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:13:19+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	39.0%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T18:58:26+00:00	24.9%	9.3%	39.0%	17.6%	24.4%
2026-10-14T19:43:33+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-14T20:28:48+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:13:55+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-14T21:59:01+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-14T22:44:08+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-14T23:29:32+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T00:14:40+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:01:10+00:00	28.5%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T01:46:17+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T02:31:28+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T03:16:36+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:02:01+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T04:47:53+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	39.0%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T05:33:16+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	42.1%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T06:18:26+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	42.1%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:03:34+00:00	29.7%	9.3%	42.1%	12.2%	46.4%
2026-10-15T07:49:21+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	42.1%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T08:35:49+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	42.1%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T09:21:44+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	42.1%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T10:07:30+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	42.1%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T10:52:49+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	42.1%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T11:39:12+00:00	17.7%	9.3%	36.6%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T12:24:49+00:00	17.7%	0.8%	36.6%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T13:10:12+00:00	17.7%	0.8%	36.6%	10.9%	30.0%
2026-10-15T13:55:48+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	36.6%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T14:48:23+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	36.6%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T15:33:56+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	36.6%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T16:19:57+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	36.6%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T17:05:21+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T17:50:40+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T18:35:58+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T19:21:07+00:00	30.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.0%	30.1%
2026-10-15T20:06:15+00:00	21.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-15T20:51:27+00:00	21.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-15T21:36:42+00:00	21.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-15T22:21:49+00:00	21.8%	0.8%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-15T23:07:01+00:00	21.8%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-15T23:52:13+00:00	21.8%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T00:37:22+00:00	21.8%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T01:22:42+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T02:08:17+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T02:53:28+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T03:38:40+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T04:23:59+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	32.6%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T05:10:26+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T05:55:54+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T06:41:02+00:00	19.7%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	43.3%
2026-10-16T07:26:13+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T08:11:23+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T08:56:33+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T09:41:41+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T10:26:53+00:00	18.8%	0.7%	34.2%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T11:12:12+00:00	18.8%	0.0%	28.8%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T11:57:36+00:00	18.8%	0.0%	28.8%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T12:42:48+00:00	18.8%	0.0%	28.8%	11.9%	30.8%
2026-10-16T15:05:24+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	28.8%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T15:50:54+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	28.8%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T16:36:10+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	28.8%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T17:21:18+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T18:06:36+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T18:51:42+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T19:36:57+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T20:22:22+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T21:07:45+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T21:52:53+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	31.3%	5.6%	30.9%
2026-10-16T22:38:02+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	31.3%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-16T23:23:24+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T00:09:11+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T00:54:57+00:00	22.2%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T01:40:06+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T02:25:18+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T03:10:27+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T03:55:36+00:00	23.4%	0.0%	34.0%	18.4%	30.9%
2026-10-17T15:24:32+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	28.7%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T16:10:30+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	28.7%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T16:55:38+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	30.5%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T17:40:47+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	30.5%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T18:25:55+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	30.5%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T19:11:02+00:00	22.3%	0.4%	30.5%	11.1%	24.3%
2026-10-17T19:56:10+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	30.5%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-17T20:41:27+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	30.5%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-17T21:26:36+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	30.5%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:11:52+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	30.5%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-17T22:57:00+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-17T23:42:11+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T00:27:23+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:12:52+00:00	19.2%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T01:58:12+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T02:43:20+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T03:28:28+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	26.9%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T05:00:12+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	25.1%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T05:45:19+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	25.1%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T06:30:25+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	25.1%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T07:15:33+00:00	19.8%	0.4%	25.1%	12.7%	20.0%
2026-10-18T08:01:01+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	25.1%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T08:47:09+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	25.1%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T09:32:17+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	25.1%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T10:17:25+00:00	20.7%	0.4%	25.1%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T11:02:38+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	21.2%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T11:48:12+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	21.2%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T12:33:25+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	21.2%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T13:19:00+00:00	20.7%	0.6%	21.2%	10.1%	13.9%
2026-10-18T14:04:08+00:00	17.4%	0.8%	21.2%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T14:55:39+00:00	17.4%	0.8%	21.2%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T15:41:27+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	21.2%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T16:26:52+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	21.2%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:12:05+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.3%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T17:57:21+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.3%	10.1%	14.1%
2026-10-18T18:42:46+00:00	17.4%	0.5%	20.3%	10.1%	14.1%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
WeatherNext 2	20%	84.7°F	3.4°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
AIFS Single	17%	83.5°F	4.3°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending
ICON	14%	83.2°F	4.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
IFS HRES	10%	81.8°F	4.5°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
NWS forecast	8%	82.0°F	3.9°F	2026-10-18 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	<1%	82.3°F	2.0°F	2026-10-18 00:00	Pending
National Blend	<1%	81.0°F	2.2°F	2026-10-18 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 88°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261021-TMAX-GE88
Opened Oct 14 · 10:32 UTC

Original listing: Orlando runs hot-for-here: 88°F+ · Wed Oct 21

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗