KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

55%

41%

41%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Reconstructed from archived summary forecasts using a shared lead-dependent Gaussian error model. Times are initializations, not verified release times.

AIFS SingleICONGFSUKMETGEMIFS archive

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	ICON	GFS	UKMET	GEM	IFS*
2026-10-09T06:00:00+00:00	17.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-09T12:00:00+00:00	6.4%	—	—	—	—	12.6%
2026-10-09T18:00:00+00:00	53.2%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T00:00:00+00:00	67.5%	—	—	—	—	43.1%
2026-10-10T06:00:00+00:00	46.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-10T12:00:00+00:00	71.2%	—	—	—	—	54.8%
2026-10-10T18:00:00+00:00	53.7%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T00:00:00+00:00	73.0%	—	—	—	—	51.1%
2026-10-11T06:00:00+00:00	46.3%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-11T12:00:00+00:00	68.9%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-11T18:00:00+00:00	70.8%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T00:00:00+00:00	64.1%	—	—	—	—	56.9%
2026-10-12T06:00:00+00:00	63.6%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-12T12:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	51.6%
2026-10-12T18:00:00+00:00	69.4%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T00:00:00+00:00	60.5%	—	—	—	—	55.8%
2026-10-13T06:00:00+00:00	62.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-13T12:00:00+00:00	65.6%	—	—	—	—	61.6%
2026-10-13T18:00:00+00:00	56.5%	—	—	—	—	—
2026-10-14T00:00:00+00:00	36.0%	—	—	—	—	44.5%
2026-10-14T06:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	25.1%	—	—	—
2026-10-14T12:00:00+00:00	37.2%	—	—	—	—	40.4%
2026-10-14T18:00:00+00:00	44.2%	—	25.8%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T00:00:00+00:00	39.0%	—	—	—	—	40.7%
2026-10-15T06:00:00+00:00	41.7%	—	36.0%	—	—	—
2026-10-15T12:00:00+00:00	39.8%	—	—	—	—	36.9%
2026-10-15T18:00:00+00:00	49.4%	—	13.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T00:00:00+00:00	48.7%	—	—	—	—	34.1%
2026-10-16T06:00:00+00:00	43.6%	—	39.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-16T12:00:00+00:00	39.1%	—	60.9%	—	—	35.4%
2026-10-16T18:00:00+00:00	46.0%	—	50.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T00:00:00+00:00	42.6%	16.7%	55.4%	—	—	28.8%
2026-10-17T06:00:00+00:00	23.9%	—	32.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-17T12:00:00+00:00	21.9%	28.1%	57.0%	11.2%	—	24.1%
2026-10-17T18:00:00+00:00	34.0%	—	55.7%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T00:00:00+00:00	15.2%	16.1%	37.8%	32.3%	—	29.7%
2026-10-18T06:00:00+00:00	18.4%	—	42.6%	—	—	—
2026-10-18T12:00:00+00:00	18.9%	23.4%	35.1%	39.4%	—	34.4%
2026-10-18T18:00:00+00:00	21.1%	—	22.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T00:00:00+00:00	29.5%	15.9%	39.0%	33.0%	—	28.8%
2026-10-19T06:00:00+00:00	20.7%	3.9%	53.3%	—	—	—
2026-10-19T12:00:00+00:00	29.3%	21.9%	56.6%	36.9%	—	29.3%
2026-10-19T18:00:00+00:00	30.3%	42.4%	41.5%	—	—	0.1%
2026-10-20T00:00:00+00:00	37.1%	26.9%	57.0%	28.4%	57.0%	27.7%
2026-10-20T06:00:00+00:00	38.5%	—	42.9%	—	—	24.9%
2026-10-20T12:00:00+00:00	—	—	36.4%	—	—	—

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	84.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	81.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗