KMCO / Sat Oct 24 / OFFICIAL STATION RECORD

Orlando, FLHigh ≥ 82°F

CONSENSUS FORECAST50%Oct 20 · 18:33 UTC

THE FORECAST FIELD

Who takes which side?

0% · NO50%YES · 100%

72%

59%

55%

41%

41%

Consensus

50%

Probabilities derived from each source’s mean and spread. Forecasts may have different initialization times.

HOW A MODEL CONTRACT WORKS

Head-to-head preview

ILLUSTRATIVE · NOT EXECUTED

AIFSYES 56.2¢Risks 56.25u

ICONNO 43.8¢Risks 43.75u

100 contracts at the midpoint of these model probabilities. Each contract pays 1u to the winning side.

AIFS +43.75u · ICON −43.75u

These are current forecast comparisons, not locked entries. No credits have been committed. Read the proposed policy →

FOLLOW THE RUNS

Probability history

Recorded Reconstructed

Recorded source probabilities; timestamps mark snapshots. Repeated values may come from the same model run.

AIFS SingleIFS EnsembleWeatherNext 2IFS HRESICON

Inspect a forecast 2026-10-20T18:33:45+00:00 · UTC

View the forecast data

UTC	AIFS	EPS	WN2	HRES	ICON
2026-10-19T04:30:32+00:00	50.0%	40.2%	46.6%	53.0%	49.4%
2026-10-19T05:17:00+00:00	50.0%	40.2%	46.6%	53.0%	49.4%
2026-10-19T06:02:11+00:00	50.0%	40.2%	46.6%	53.0%	49.4%
2026-10-19T06:47:19+00:00	50.0%	40.2%	46.6%	53.0%	49.4%
2026-10-19T07:32:53+00:00	59.6%	40.2%	46.6%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T08:19:21+00:00	59.6%	40.2%	46.6%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T09:04:27+00:00	59.6%	40.2%	46.6%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T09:49:33+00:00	59.6%	40.2%	46.6%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T10:35:04+00:00	59.6%	40.2%	46.6%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T11:20:44+00:00	59.6%	42.4%	50.0%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T12:06:30+00:00	59.6%	42.4%	50.0%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T12:51:50+00:00	59.6%	42.4%	50.0%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T13:36:56+00:00	49.2%	42.4%	50.0%	52.8%	35.4%
2026-10-19T14:27:58+00:00	49.2%	42.4%	50.0%	52.8%	35.3%
2026-10-20T15:31:41+00:00	69.3%	41.4%	46.8%	58.7%	41.0%
2026-10-20T16:17:58+00:00	69.3%	41.4%	46.8%	58.7%	41.0%
2026-10-20T17:03:14+00:00	71.5%	41.4%	55.3%	58.7%	41.0%
2026-10-20T17:48:37+00:00	71.5%	41.4%	55.3%	58.7%	41.0%
2026-10-20T18:33:45+00:00	71.5%	41.4%	55.3%	58.7%	41.0%

THE MODEL BOX SCORE

Forecasts & evidence

MODEL	YES	MEAN	SPREAD σ	INITIALIZATION UTC	BRIER ↓
AIFS Single	72%	84.1°F	4.6°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
IFS HRES	59%	82.6°F	5.0°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
WeatherNext 2	55%	82.0°F	3.7°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending
NWS forecast	54%	82.0°F	4.5°F	2026-10-20 14:00	Pending
IFS Ensemble	41%	81.0°F	2.3°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
ICON	41%	80.4°F	4.9°F	2026-10-20 00:00	Pending
National Blend	40%	81.0°F	2.0°F	2026-10-20 06:00	Pending

Spread is the standard deviation used in the probability approximation. It is not a measured confidence rating. Brier here scores the latest recorded snapshot, not a league deadline.

SETTLEMENT & PROVENANCE

High ≥ 82°F · KMCO

Daily temperature props settle on the ACIS official station record. Inclusive and strict thresholds retain their exact meanings. Provisional observations do not replace the settlement record.

WP-KMCO-20261024-TMAX-GE82
Opened Oct 19 · 04:30 UTC

Original listing: Orlando high ≥ 82°F · Sat Oct 24

Original prop, full history & receipt ↗